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Blood-curdling screams were heard in bushland metres from William Tyrrell’s home when he vanished

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blood curdling screams were heard in bushland metres from william tyrrells home when he vanished

A boy’s scream was heard coming from bushland near where Frank Abbott lived shortly after three-year-old William Tyrrell went missing, an inquest has heard.

Anna Baker was tending to strawberries on her Herons Creek property on the NSW mid-north coast in September 2014 when she heard a child scream out.

‘(It was) not very long, it sounded like maybe he was hurt,’ Ms Baker told William’s inquest, which resumed on Tuesday.

‘It was a scream and it was silence pretty quickly … I had no reason to think it was William.’

William Tyrrell  went missing from his foster grandparents' home in Kendall, on the NSW mid-north coast in  September 2014

William Tyrrell  went missing from his foster grandparents' home in Kendall, on the NSW mid-north coast in  September 2014

William Tyrrell  went missing from his foster grandparents’ home in Kendall, on the NSW mid-north coast in  September 2014

Her large property is about four kilometres from Kendall, where William’s foster grandmother lived.

William was playing at his foster grandmother’s home on the morning of September 12, 2014, when he disappeared.

No trace of him has ever been found and no person has ever been charged.

The inquest heard Ms Baker learned years later that the bushland behind her home had been home to Frank Abbott, a convicted criminal widely regarded in the community as a creep and danger to children.

That new information prompted her to report the scream to police.

She told coroner Harriet Grahame on Tuesday she was ‘100 per cent’ certain it was a boy’s scream.

‘I stood up, looked in the direction of the cry and listened,’ she said.

‘But I didn’t hear anymore.

‘It was pretty thick bush.’

Anna Baker, who lived near person of interest Frank Abbott, told an inquest on Tuesday that she heard a scream coming from bushland near the convicted paedophile's home. Pictured: Police searching bushland at Batar Creek in 2018

Anna Baker, who lived near person of interest Frank Abbott, told an inquest on Tuesday that she heard a scream coming from bushland near the convicted paedophile's home. Pictured: Police searching bushland at Batar Creek in 2018

Anna Baker, who lived near person of interest Frank Abbott, told an inquest on Tuesday that she heard a scream coming from bushland near the convicted paedophile’s home. Pictured: Police searching bushland at Batar Creek in 2018

The friend who told Ms Baker about Abbott’s residence in the bushland said ‘all the children’ in nearby Johns River were warned to stay away from him.

Abbott is not listed on the witness list and is not expected to give evidence to the inquest.

A bid to add high-profile former detective Gary Jubelin to the witness list failed on Tuesday after an application by William’s foster parents.

The former detective chief inspector led the police search for William from February 2015 until early 2019.

But Ms Grahame said she already had a significant amount of material based on Jubelin’s investigations and he’d responded twice to written requests to present any further evidence he held on the case.

‘In my view, there is little that can be gained that is already not contained in the written material,’ she said.

She added Jubelin’s giving of evidence ‘at this point’ could be a ‘significant distraction’.

Her inquest was concerned about admissible evidence on the September 2014 disappearance, not opinions about how the police investigation had been run.

Jailed paedophile Frank Abbott,79, lived in the caravan of a tradesman who worked on the home where William Tyrrell vanished from

Jailed paedophile Frank Abbott,79, lived in the caravan of a tradesman who worked on the home where William Tyrrell vanished from

Jailed paedophile Frank Abbott,79, lived in the caravan of a tradesman who worked on the home where William Tyrrell vanished from

The court was told the foster family believed Jubelin was best placed to shed light on particular lines of investigation over the years and what lines of inquiry were still outstanding when he departed.

But counsel assisting the coroner Gerard Craddock SC said police ran a criminal investigation ‘from the get-go’ and the suggestion otherwise was ‘completely and utterly wrong’.

Mr Craddock said the former detective had been ‘absolutely dedicated’ to finding what happened to William and unsurprisingly had ‘opinions’, but wouldn’t be able to add anything new.

Jubelin was sidelined from the Tyrrell investigation in early 2019 and quit the force entirely in May 2019 after investigations began into illegal recordings he’d made while interviewing a person of interest.

He was later convicted and fined $10,000 for breaching of the surveillance devices act.

The inquest also heard from a handyman who worked on William’s foster grandparent’s home before the toddler vanished who claimed Abbott spoke about ‘the smell of death’ in bushland. 

Tradesman Geoff Owen was cross-examined in the Coroners Court on Tuesday about his ties to the now-locked up paedophile. 

Abbott – who was then a free man – lived in Mr Owen’s caravan at Herons Creek and the tradesman occasionally gave him a lift, the court heard.  

This is a caravan Abbott lived at on the mid-north coast of New South Wales following William's disappearance

This is a caravan Abbott lived at on the mid-north coast of New South Wales following William's disappearance

This is a caravan Abbott lived at on the mid-north coast of New South Wales following William’s disappearance

William Tyrrell on the deck Mr Owen worked on, in one of the final photos of the boy

William Tyrrell on the deck Mr Owen worked on, in one of the final photos of the boy

William Tyrrell on the deck Mr Owen worked on, in one of the final photos of the boy 

Gerard Craddock QC, the counsel assisting the inquest, asked Mr Owen: ‘There were occasions where you would give Frank Abbott a lift in a car to a bus stop or something of that nature. On those occasions in the car, he pointed out an area and said that he’d encountered a really bad smell there?’

‘That’s right, he did say that to me, yes,’ Mr Owen replied.

Mr Craddock asked: ‘Did he say he could smell ‘death’?’

‘Yes, he did, that was the words he used,’ Mr Owen said.

Asked by counsel for William’s foster family, barrister Justine Hopper, how he had reacted to the bizarre alleged remark, Mr Owen said he had ‘shrugged’ it off.

‘You didn’t think it was unusual?’ Ms Hopper asked. 

‘No, not of Frank Abbott – nothing was unusual about Frank Abbott.’

During the hearing, Mr Owen said Mr Abbott had come to live at his property after Martin Parish, the local baptist minister, asked the local church congregation words to the effect of: ‘Does anyone have any accommodation for Frank?’ 

Abbott is currently serving a 16-year jail sentence for unrelated sex crimes. He was once acquitted of the 1968 murder of a schoolgirl at trial in the 1990s. 

Priest Martin Parish (on right) has given evidence at the inquest into William Tyrrell's disappearance. He runs a small church in the area where Frank Abbott lived

Priest Martin Parish (on right) has given evidence at the inquest into William Tyrrell's disappearance. He runs a small church in the area where Frank Abbott lived

Priest Martin Parish (on right) has given evidence at the inquest into William Tyrrell’s disappearance. He runs a small church in the area where Frank Abbott lived

He has been attending the inquest via audio-visual link from Hunter Correctional Centre. 

Under questioning, Mr Owen said he ‘might’ve’ been at a community centre on the day William vanished, September 12.

Lawyer for the foster family, Justine Hopper, asked Mr Owen: ‘Is it the case you didn’t go to the community on the 12th of September even though you said you went there, you actually didn’t go?’

Mr Owen said: ‘I don’t know – I actually can’t remember … I’ve contracted Parkinson’s’ Disease and my memory is shot to pieces.’

The court earlier heard from a police officer, Senior Constable Daniel Dring, about searches around Herons Creek and Logans Crossing, where Abbott had lived since William vanished.

Abbott has denied playing a role in William’s disappearance.

The inquest continues. 

This post first appeared on dailymail.co.uk

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Coronavirus UK: Government considers Tier 4 lockdown, hints Raab

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coronavirus uk government considers tier 4 lockdown hints raab

Dominic Raab today hinted the Government could introduce a new Tier Four set of even stricter coronavirus restrictions as he refused to rule out another national lockdown.

The Government’s current local lockdown system is based on three tiers but there are fears that even the most draconian rules in Tier Three are not enough to stop the spread of the disease. A new Tier Four could see non-essential shops told to close and travel limited to getting to work and school.

Mr Raab’s comments come on the back of warnings from Number 10’s scientific advisers that England has lost control of its second epidemic and that hospitals could be overwhelmed by mid-December. But conflicting data has made it difficult to put a finger on exactly how dire the situation currently is.

A report from the Office for National Statistics – a Government-run agency – today found daily coronavirus infections in England surged by 50 per cent last week. It estimated almost 52,000 people were catching the virus every day and one in every 100 people in the country were infected with Covid-19 a week ago. 

The weekly update is far lower than another shocking Government-funded study, called REACT-1, which this week claimed there were 96,000 new cases per day by October 25, putting the current outbreak on par with levels seen in the first wave. Other researchers at King’s College London, however, predicted England has around 32,000 cases per day and claimed infections are rising ‘steadily’ and ‘have not spiralled out of control’.

REACT-1 predicted earlier in the week the reproduction ‘R’ rate across all of England had climbed to 1.6 – the highest since the first national lockdown – and possibly as high as 2.8 in London. When the R is above 1, an outbreak can grow exponentially. An R of 1.8 would mean on average every 10 people infected will infect 28 other people. Yet SAGE’s latest official R rate estimates – also published today – claimed the figure had dropped and estimated it stood between 1.1 and 1.3 both nationally and in London.

Amid confusion about the true scale of the country’s infection rates, one thing is clear – hospitals are filling up with infected patients, spiking by about a third in the most recent week. MailOnline analysis shows 19 NHS trusts are already treating more virus patients now than they were during the darkest days of the pandemic in spring.

Trusts in Tier Three lockdown areas such as Nottingham, Liverpool and Doncaster are seeing up to three times the number of Covid-19 patients compared to mid-April, with five brutal months of winter still to go.  The fact several trusts have surpassed spring levels already will be a cause for concern so early into winter. As the country moves deeper into the colder months, people tend to get sicker from a slew of other illnesses and need care, which heaps even more pressure on hospitals. 

But there is some reason to be optimistic, given that, overall, total beds occupied by Covid-19 sufferers across the country are still only half of what they were during the darkest days of the crisis in spring. Even in April, hospitals were not overwhelmed. And, although hospitals are filling up fast, they are mainly in hotspot areas and some experts believe it has been a direct result of a mid-September surge in infections, meaning admissions could soon tail off.

Amid uncertainty about the data, Mr Raab said the Government is ‘always ready for further measures’ as he insisted ministers intend to stick to their localised approach of cracking down on infections. But the Foreign Secretary admitted that both Germany and France had also used a strategy of local crackdowns before ultimately being forced into new nation shutdowns.  He would only go so far as saying the Government is ‘striving to avoid’ following the UK’s European neighbours as he resisted imposing a ‘blanket approach or a blunt approach’.   

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Above are the Covid-19 infection rates in London boroughs for the week ending October 24, according to official data

Above are the Covid-19 infection rates in London boroughs for the week ending October 24, according to official data

Above are the Covid-19 infection rates in London boroughs for the week ending October 24, according to official data

Almost 20 NHS trusts in England are already treating more coronavirus patients than at the peak of the first wave, according to official statistics that come amid warnings hospitals across the country could run out of beds before Christmas

Almost 20 NHS trusts in England are already treating more coronavirus patients than at the peak of the first wave, according to official statistics that come amid warnings hospitals across the country could run out of beds before Christmas

Almost 20 NHS trusts in England are already treating more coronavirus patients than at the peak of the first wave, according to official statistics that come amid warnings hospitals across the country could run out of beds before Christmas 

Popular parts of London were almost empty last night amid fears the capital will be plunged into Tier Three within the next two weeks

Popular parts of London were almost empty last night amid fears the capital will be plunged into Tier Three within the next two weeks

Popular parts of London were almost empty last night amid fears the capital will be plunged into Tier Three within the next two weeks

A surge in case numbers across London mean experts believe ministers will have no choice but to elevate the capital into the top tier with Birmingham also set to move into Tier Three

A surge in case numbers across London mean experts believe ministers will have no choice but to elevate the capital into the top tier with Birmingham also set to move into Tier Three

A surge in case numbers across London mean experts believe ministers will have no choice but to elevate the capital into the top tier with Birmingham also set to move into Tier Three

Covid-19 outbreaks are growing quickest in Hull, Derby and Somerset, official data reveals

Covid-19 outbreaks are growing the fastest in Hull, Derby, and Bath, according to official data that has revealed only 20 of all 150 authorities in England saw a drop in infections last week. 

Hull and Derby saw their coronavirus epidemics almost double in the seven-day spell ending October 25, with seven-day infection rates jumping to 279 and 329 cases per 100,000 people, respectively. 

Both cities, along with the rest of Staffordshire and Derbyshire, will be moved from Tier One into Tier Two from Saturday to try and stem the rise in infections, it was announced yesterday as England crept another step closer towards a full national lockdown.

But most of the authorities where epidemics have grown the most remain in Tier One, where only the rule of six and 10pm curfew apply. Scientists have argued these rules are not stringent enough to shrink the outbreak, with top Government advisers warning the current growth is ‘very bleak’.  

For example, North Somerset and Bath and North East Somerset, where cases jumped up 83 per cent and 70 per cent in one week, have yet to be hit by any tougher virus-controlling restrictions. It comes despite warnings that the coronavirus crisis is ‘speeding up’ in the south of the country. 

Meanwhile, figures from Public Health England’s weekly surveillance report show the infection rate has fallen in Nottingham by 30 per cent. Despite the city’s outbreak shrinking, it will be thrown under the toughest Tier Three restrictions from tomorrow, along with the rest of the county.

And the data offered more proof that the tightest lockdown measures do work, with Liverpool, Knowsley, Sefton and St Helens all seeing their weekly coronavirus infection rates drop. All of the Merseyside area has been under Tier Three lockdown since October 14. 

It suggests the brutal restrictions — which ban people from socialising with anyone outside their own household and mean many pubs, bars, and in some cases gyms, have to close — are beginning to work. However, scientists say the true effect of measure won’t be clear until a few weeks have passed.  

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It comes as local leaders warned it is ‘inevitable’ that Birmingham will soon be moved into Tier Three as ministers warned the nation is heading for a national lockdown ‘by proxy’ while streets were largely empty in London amid fears the capital will be plunged into the top tier within the next two weeks.

Some 21 million people across England will soon be living in areas subject to Tier Two restrictions while 11 million will be in Tier Three, which means some 32 million – almost 60 per cent of the population – will be in the higher tiers.  

West Yorkshire will be placed into Tier Three from midnight on Sunday, as 2.3 million people across Leeds, Bradford and Wakefield will join the eight million in Liverpool, Greater Manchester and Nottibghamshire already under the strictest curbs.

Ministers were said to have been shown ‘very, very bleak’ data this week which experts believe could result in the whole country being in Tier Three by Christmas.  

The latest coronavirus developments came as: 

  • Mr Raab said the public would find it ‘desperately unfair’ to impose a national lockdown while rates of infection vary across the country. 
  • Nottinghamshire Police said 40 young people are facing fines after a party was broken up at a student hall of residence. 
  • It emerged that Britain’s biggest lenders charged the Government more than £65 million in interest in just three months to provide loans to British businesses during the pandemic. 
  • British Airways’ parent company IAG swung to a pre-tax loss of 6.2 billion euros (£5.6 billion) for the nine months to the end of September, compared with a 2.3 billion euros (£2.1 billion) pre-tax profit during the same period a year ago.
  • Official statistics suggested nearly one in every 13 UK workers was still on furlough in mid-October as the scheme ends this weekend.
  • Official statistics showed there has now been more than 62,000 deaths in the UK involving Covid-19.
  • Mark Drakeford revealed Wales will not return to a ‘network of local restrictions’ after its ‘firebreak’ national lockdown ends and will instead roll out a ‘simple set of national rules that are easier for everyone to understand’. 

Tier Three restrictions mean pubs and bars have to close unless they are serving substantial meals while the mixing of households indoors or outdoors, including in gardens, is also banned.   

But some experts are sceptical that the top tier is enough to get the spread of coronavirus back under control amid growing calls for tougher action. 

The Government is reportedly considering introducing a new Tier Four of restrictions which would approach the measures imposed during the national lockdown. 

Mr Raab this morning did not deny that is the case as he told the BBC’s Radio 4 Today programme: ‘We are always ready for further measures that we can take but I think the most important thing about further measures is we continue on the track that we are on of targeting the virus.

‘The difference between now and the first lockdown is we are in a much better place to really focus on where the virus is the greatest and I think that is right, not only in scientific and virus management terms, I think in terms of the way people feel about tackling the virus it is fair, it fits the natural justice that we are focusing on the areas where the uptick is the greatest and we are not taking a one-size-fits-all approach or a blanket approach or a blunt approach.’

Mr Raab said the Government wanted to avoid the ‘arbitrariness of a blanket approach’ as he claimed the public favour targeted restrictions. 

However, he did not rule out eventually having to impose a national lockdown after France and Germany made the move earlier this week. 

He said: ‘You mention France. France of course tried a localised approach and then fell back on the national approach.

‘What I think that shows you, Germany is the same, is how important it is that we all rally together at local level through to national level, communities, local leaders, national leaders, and really lean in to the localised focused approach.

‘That is the most effective way to tackle the virus and avoid the blanket approach which I don’t think would be in the best interests of this country and which we are striving to avoid.’

Mr Raab said it is ‘crucially important’ to ‘carry the public with us’ and that he believed the Government’s tiered approach is the best way to do that. 

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Scientists have warned the second wave of coronavirus could result in 85,000 deaths, almost double the number of victims from the first epidemic

Percentage change in coronavirus cases across England in the week to October 25: The five local authorities where the infection rate grew the most are: Kingston upon Hull City, 92.81 per cent; Derby, 91.84 per cent; North Somerset, 82.99 per cent; Medway, 77.17 per cent; and Bath and North East Somerset 69.72 per cent

Percentage change in coronavirus cases across England in the week to October 25: The five local authorities where the infection rate grew the most are: Kingston upon Hull City, 92.81 per cent; Derby, 91.84 per cent; North Somerset, 82.99 per cent; Medway, 77.17 per cent; and Bath and North East Somerset 69.72 per cent

 Percentage change in coronavirus cases across England in the week to October 25: The five local authorities where the infection rate grew the most are: Kingston upon Hull City, 92.81 per cent; Derby, 91.84 per cent; North Somerset, 82.99 per cent; Medway, 77.17 per cent; and Bath and North East Somerset 69.72 per cent

Data for the week between October 12 and October 15 suggests the rate of infection has increased significantly in some parts of the country

Data for the week between October 12 and October 15 suggests the rate of infection has increased significantly in some parts of the country

Data for the week between October 12 and October 15 suggests the rate of infection has increased significantly in some parts of the country

Daily Covid-19 cases rose by 50% last week in England and 1% of the country was infected a week ago, ONS estimates

Daily coronavirus infections in England surged by 50 per cent last week so that almost 52,000 people were catching the virus every day and one in every 100 people in the country were infected with Covid-19 a week ago.

Office for National Statistics estimates published today showed the number of people catching the virus has almost doubled in a fortnight again and more than 568,000 people were infected at any one time last week.

The report predicted that 51,900 people caught Covid-19 every day in England last week, up from 35,200 per day the week before and 27,900 the week before that. It said the total number of people infected was thought to be 568,100, up from 433,300 seven days before.

ONS experts warned ‘the number of infections continues to increase’, and added: ‘There has been growth in all age groups over the past two weeks; older teenagers and young adults continue to have the highest current rates while rates appear to be steeply increasing among secondary school children.’ 

The weekly update is far lower than the shocking Government-funded REACT study which this week hit headlines by claiming there were 96,000 new cases per day, which was approaching levels seen in the first wave. 

Other researchers at King’s College London, however, have today predicted England has around 32,000 new symptomatic cases per day and claimed infections are rising ‘steadily’ and ‘have not spiralled out of control’. 

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‘Carrying the public with us is crucially important and the longer this pandemic goes on, every country is experiencing the same thing, the more challenging it is,’ he said. 

‘But the best means of carrying the public with us is that they understand intuitively, even if it feels difficult in their area or whether it is on the business side or the domestic side, that they know we are targeting the virus where it is the greatest threat.’

Mr Raab’s comments came as local leaders said it is ‘inevitable’ that Tier Three restrictions will soon be imposed on Birmingham. 

Many areas in the East and West Midlands are currently in Tier Two but Councillor Ian Ward, the leader of Birmingham City Council, said yesterday a move to Tier Three is on the cards even if it is not ‘imminent’. 

He said: ‘Given the rising case rate and other factors, a move to Tier Three would seem to be inevitable at some stage and I’m talking to the other met (council) leaders, MPs and public health officials on a daily basis as we put our asks together for moving into Tier Three.

‘That’s because we want the Government to work with us to protect lives, jobs and the economy.

‘We don’t want imposition without negotiation. But I have certainly not said that we are going into Tier Three imminently. That’s not currently the case.’  

Health experts are warning that the UK’s three tier system is not enough to ‘get on top of the numbers’, with deputy chief medical officer Jonathan Van-Tam reportedly beginning to change his mind over whether regional lockdowns will suppress the virus. 

He backed the move at a Number 10 press conference last week.

Presenting what one source called ‘very, very bleak’ data to a meeting of Covid-O, the Cabinet subcommittee on coronavirus, Mr Van Tam said that daily hospital admissions had now reached the highest level since April at 1,404.  

There are fears that the whole country will be at Tier Three by Christmas, scuppering family get togethers, unless urgent action is taken now. 

Experts believe that allowing people to visit family at Christmas will be a ‘spreading event’ that could cause a spike in infections many times worse than that caused by the return of university students to campuses earlier this year.

Boris Johnson is facing renewed pressure from his medical officers to impose a nation-wide shutdown before and after Christmas in a bid to allow families to gather over the holidays

Boris Johnson is facing renewed pressure from his medical officers to impose a nation-wide shutdown before and after Christmas in a bid to allow families to gather over the holidays

Boris Johnson is facing renewed pressure from his medical officers to impose a nation-wide shutdown before and after Christmas in a bid to allow families to gather over the holidays

London could be plunged into Tier 3 lockdown within two weeks as England creeped closer towards full national lockdown by the back door last night, with millions told they will face extra curbs

London could be plunged into Tier 3 lockdown within two weeks as England creeped closer towards full national lockdown by the back door last night, with millions told they will face extra curbs

London could be plunged into Tier 3 lockdown within two weeks as England creeped closer towards full national lockdown by the back door last night, with millions told they will face extra curbs

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Anger over Tier 3 lockdown in West Yorkshire as local MPs warn ‘arbitrary’ tougher measures will ‘ruin people’s lives’

Yorkshire MPs have railed against the Government’s decision to push the area into Tier Three lockdown from this weekend, branding the move ‘disappointing’ and warning it will ‘ruin people’s lives’.     

West Yorkshire will be placed under the highest level of lockdown restrictions from midnight on Sunday, affecting around 2million people living in Leeds, Bradford, Calderdale, Wakefield, Kirklees and surrounding areas.   

Council leaders in region yesterday admitted they had been ‘reluctant’ to accept the move and that they feared for local businesses because the Government was ‘not in the mood to offer more’ money to support them. 

The leader of Leeds’s council said the city would receive around £60million, but it is not clear how much has been offered to West Yorkshire as a whole.

The anger has been echoed by MPs for the region, both Labour and Conservative, who have branded the move ‘arbitrary’ and damaging and said there is no proof they will work.  

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But some believe that introducing national restrictions before and after Christmas, while lifting them for the big day, could help minimise the impact. 

One senior health official told the Telegraph that anti-Covid measures were most likely to be successful if they were taken on a national basis rather than toughening up the rules for Tier Three or introducing a Tier Four. 

They added that a post-Christmas ‘circuit-breaker’ lockdown could also help reverse numbers and curb rising numbers of hospitalisations as fears spread that Britain’s ICUs could be overrun.

‘Releasing measures for two days is unlikely to cause a big upswing,’ a source said.

‘But it won’t do nothing. Christmas brings people from all over the country to sit inside together, so its quite likely to be a spreading event.

‘But people want to see their loved ones and they want to make physical contact, and we have to recognise that.’ 

Almost 60 per cent of the population – around 32.6 million – will be under stricter rules by Monday, and it is thought London could be moved into the top tier in two weeks unless infection rates drop significantly.

However, analysis by MailOnline suggests that only one London borough currently has a coronavirus infection rate above the England average amid fears the capital’s R-rate could be as high as three. 

The borough of Ealing had a weekly infection rate of 228.5 cases per 100,000 people in the week ending October 24, just slightly above the national average of 225.9. 

But for the other 31 boroughs, their rates were below the national benchmark.

And when the city’s Covid-19 outbreak is broken down to smaller districts within the boroughs, only six areas had infection rates at 400 per 100,000 – which is the level across much more badly affected Tier Three Liverpool, Manchester and Sheffield.

Nonetheless, no boroughs in the capital have an infection rate below 100 per 100,000, way above the level of 20 per 100,000 at which the Government considers curbs on travel to foreign countries. 

Sixteen more areas will move into the ‘high risk’ Tier Two at midnight including Oxford, Luton, East Riding of Yorkshire, Kingston Upon Hull, Derbyshire Dales, Derby and Staffordshire

That means that more than 21.6 million face the restrictions that include a ban on socialising indoors with anyone from another household, whether at home or in bars, restaurants and cafes.

It comes after SAGE piled fresh pressure on the Prime Minister to impose tougher restrictions as it warned up to 85,000 people could die in a second wave of infections. 

A ‘reasonable worst case scenario’ put forward by SAGE suggested daily deaths could remain above 500 for three months or more until March next year.

Escape from Paris: City is gridlocked as tens of thousands flee, stations are packed, violent protests break out and shelves are stripped ahead of month-long lockdown that BANS travel 

By Jack Wright for MailOnline  

Tens of thousands of Parisians last night caused massive traffic jams in a desperate attempt to flee the French capital ahead of the start of Emmanuel Macron’s new national shutdown. 

Video posted to Twitter shows huge numbers of Parisians attempting a mass exodus out of the city in a bid to avoid the 9pm curfew and the start of the second lockdown from midnight.

The night air was filled with the sound of blaring car horns while social media users estimated that Parisians had created ‘hundreds of miles’ of gridlock to escape to their second homes in the country. 

Revellers also seized the opportunity to spend one last night with friends and family last night before bars and restaurants are closed as the French government plunges the country back into lockdown.

Meanwhile French people emptied supermarkets in a repeat of the panic-buying that swept Europe in March as Parisians and other city dwellers prepared for a month in confinement. 

Shoppers stocked up on pasta and toilet roll while people queued outside hairdressers for a final trim. Office workers in the capital’s business district hauled their equipment to cars and trains in preparation for WFH.  

Emmanuel Macron’s draconian measures are due to be enforced until at least December 1, with people required to carry documents justifying their reason for leaving home that will be subject to police checks.

Tens of thousands of Parisians last night caused massive traffic jams in a desperate attempt to flee the French capital ahead of the start of Emmanuel Macron's new national shutdown

Tens of thousands of Parisians last night caused massive traffic jams in a desperate attempt to flee the French capital ahead of the start of Emmanuel Macron's new national shutdown

Tens of thousands of Parisians last night caused massive traffic jams in a desperate attempt to flee the French capital ahead of the start of Emmanuel Macron's new national shutdown

Tens of thousands of Parisians last night caused massive traffic jams in a desperate attempt to flee the French capital ahead of the start of Emmanuel Macron's new national shutdown

Tens of thousands of Parisians last night caused massive traffic jams in a desperate attempt to flee the French capital ahead of the start of Emmanuel Macron’s new national shutdown 

View of traffic jams in Paris as traffic records have been broken in Paris ahead of the new shutdown coming into force

View of traffic jams in Paris as traffic records have been broken in Paris ahead of the new shutdown coming into force

View of traffic jams in Paris as traffic records have been broken in Paris ahead of the new shutdown coming into force

Parisians flocked to the Gare de Lyon to avoid confining themselves to the French capital during the shutdown

Parisians flocked to the Gare de Lyon to avoid confining themselves to the French capital during the shutdown

Parisians flocked to the Gare de Lyon to avoid confining themselves to the French capital during the shutdown

France’s health minister yesterday warned that up to a million people may be infected with the disease, while Prime Minister Jean Castex extended mask requirements to schoolchildren as young as six. 

French schools will stay open but the stay-at-home measures for adults are as strict as in the spring, with written paperwork needed to go outside for shopping, medical care or one hour a day of exercise.     

President Macron said a curfew in Paris and other major cities had failed to stem the tide of infections, claiming that 400,000 people would die of Covid-19 if drastic action were not taken. 

In a televised announcement, he said: ‘Our target is simple: sharply reducing infections from 40,000 a day to 5,000 and slowing the pace of admissions to hospital and intensive care.’ 

Hospitals are already scrambling for intensive care beds and ‘no matter what we do, nearly 9,000 people will be in intensive care by mid-November,’ he said. The French leader called the new restrictions ‘heartbreaking’ but said he ‘could never stand by and see hundreds of thousands of our citizens die’.   

Bars, shops and restaurants are closing entirely again while France’s government is urging businesses to have employees work from home ‘five days a week’. 

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35031140 8895437 image a 12 1604045257899

 

This map shows the 14-day Covid-19 infection rate in Europe. Most of France is in the highest category of 240 or more cases per 100,000 people, along with most of Spain, all of the Czech Republic, the North of England and many other regions around the continent. French leader Emmanuel Macron this week announced a new nationwide lockdown, claiming that 400,000 people will die of coronavirus if the country does nothing to control a second wave that will be 'more deadly' than the first

This map shows the 14-day Covid-19 infection rate in Europe. Most of France is in the highest category of 240 or more cases per 100,000 people, along with most of Spain, all of the Czech Republic, the North of England and many other regions around the continent. French leader Emmanuel Macron this week announced a new nationwide lockdown, claiming that 400,000 people will die of coronavirus if the country does nothing to control a second wave that will be 'more deadly' than the first

This map shows the 14-day Covid-19 infection rate in Europe. Most of France is in the highest category of 240 or more cases per 100,000 people, along with most of Spain, all of the Czech Republic, the North of England and many other regions around the continent. French leader Emmanuel Macron this week announced a new nationwide lockdown, claiming that 400,000 people will die of coronavirus if the country does nothing to control a second wave that will be ‘more deadly’ than the first

Mr Macron said some shops could be allowed to open in mid-November if the situation improves – but his scientific adviser’s warning raises the prospect of lockdown measures continuing up to Christmas.    

State-approved reasons for leaving households include buying essential goods, seeking medical attention or taking a daily one-hour allocation of exercise, the French government announced. Though bars and restaurants will close again, all public services, schools and essential workplaces will stay open.   

Stores and businesses across France were also filled by people racing to get supplies on Thursday – and maybe a last-minute haircut – ahead of the new lockdown. 

Yesterday the French government recorded 47,637 new confirmed coronavirus cases over the past 24 hours, compared to 36,437 on Wednesday and a record high of 52,010 on SundayThe total number of infections rose to over 1.28 million while the death tally went up by 235 to 36,020. The number of people going into hospital with Covid-19 fell to 976, after three days of about 1,200 hospitalisations per day. 

This post first appeared on dailymail.co.uk

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Britain’s Covid-19 R rate has DROPPED to between 1.1 and 1.3

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britains covid 19 r rate has dropped to between 1 1 and 1 3

Britain’s coronavirus R rate has dropped again, according to the government’s scientific advisers.

SAGE today estimated the reproduction rate – the average number of people each Covid-19 patient infects – stands between 1.1 and 1.3. The number must stay below one for an outbreak to shrink.

This marks the second week in a row that the group’s estimate has fallen, with it standing at between 1.2 and 1.4 in last Friday’s report and 1.3 to 1.5 the week before that. 

And the advisory panel predicted the outbreak may be growing fastest in the South West, alongside the East of England, Midlands and South East, amid mounting evidence that the virus is no longer just causing havoc in the north. They also revealed infections may be spreading the slowest in the North West, where millions are living under the harshest Tier Three restrictions. 

Despite the drop in the R rate the advisory panel, whose advice has been key to guiding Number 10 through the pandemic, warned it was certain the outbreak is still growing ‘rapidly across the country’. 

Separate official data today warned infections surged by 50 per cent last week and are still ‘rising steeply’. The Office for National Statistics estimated 52,000 people were getting infected in England every day in the week ending October 23.

The team, whose calculations are based on the results of thousands of random swab tests, said roughly one in every 100 people in the country were infected with Covid-19 a week ago.

Other researchers at King’s College London, however, predicted England has around 32,000 new symptomatic cases per day and claimed infections are rising ‘steadily’ and ‘have not spiralled out of control’. And data released by Public Health England today revealed that 20 out of all 150 authorities in England saw a fall in their infection rates in the week ending October 25. 

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HOW HAS THE R RATE CHANGED IN THE UK? 

AREA

ENGLAND 

UK

EAST 

LONDON

MIDLANDS

NORTH EAST 

NORTH WEST

SOUTH EAST

SOUTH WEST

THIS WEEK

1.1 – 1.3 

1.1 – 1.3

1.2 – 1.4 

1.1 – 1.3

1.2 – 1.4

1.1 – 1.3

1.0 – 1.2

1.2 – 1.4

1.2 – 1.5 

LAST WEEK

1.2 – 1.4 

1.2 – 1.4

— 

1.2 – 1.4 

1.1 – 1.3 

1.1 – 1.3

1.1 – 1.3

1.1 – 1.3

1.2 – 1.5

1.3 – 1.6 

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HOW HAS THE GROWTH RATE CHANGED? 

AREA

ENGLAND 

UK

EAST 

LONDON

MIDLANDS

NORTH EAST 

NORTH WEST

SOUTH EAST

SOUTH WEST 

THIS WEEK 

3% to 5%

2% to 4% 

— 

3% to 6%

2% to 5%

3% to 6%

2% to 5%

1% to 3%

3% to 6%

4% to 7%

LAST WEEK   

3% to 5%

3% to 6%

— 

3% to 6% 

2% to 5% 

2% to 5%

2% to 5%

2% to 5%

4% to 7% 

5% to 9% 

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When the R rate is above one, an outbreak can grow exponentially. An R of 1.3 means on average every 10 people infected will infect 13 other people. 

The estimates for R and the growth rate are provided by the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M), a sub-group of Sage. 

The growth rate, which estimates how quickly the number of infections is changing day by day, is between plus 2 per cent and plus 4 per cent for the UK as a whole. 

Daily Covid-19 cases rose by 50% last week in England, ONS estimates 

Daily coronavirus infections in England surged by 50 per cent last week so that almost 52,000 people were catching the virus every day and one in every 100 people in the country were infected with Covid-19 a week ago.

An Office for National Statistics expert said cases are ‘rising steeply in England’ as estimates published today showed the number of people catching the virus has almost doubled in a fortnight again and more than 568,000 people were infected at any one time last week.

The report predicted that 51,900 people caught Covid-19 every day in England last week, up from 35,200 per day the week before and 27,900 the week before that. It said the total number of people infected was thought to be 568,100, up from 433,300 seven days before.

ONS experts warned ‘the number of infections continues to increase’, and added: ‘There has been growth in all age groups over the past two weeks; older teenagers and young adults continue to have the highest current rates while rates appear to be steeply increasing among secondary school children.’

The weekly update is far lower than the shocking Government-funded REACT study which this week hit headlines by claiming there were 96,000 new cases per day, which was approaching levels seen in the first wave. 

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The most likely value is towards the middle of that range, according to the experts.

SAGE said the figures published more accurately represent the average situation over the past few weeks rather than the present situation. They are calculated based on infections, deaths and hospital admissions, which can lag by around three weeks.

It means the rate may already be higher across swathes of the UK.

But many experts are hopeful that the imposition of Tier Two and Tier Three restrictions in many areas will have forced the virus into a downward spiral.

A week after the harshest measures were imposed in Liverpool, half of their local authorities started registering falls in infections.

And in Lancashire 11 out of 12 authorities experiencing major outbreaks of the virus saw their infections tail off in the five days after Tier Three restrictions were imposed across the region. 

The ONS warned today that England’s coronavirus outbreak grew by 50 per cent last week.

The weekly update is far lower than the shocking Government-funded REACT study’s estimate the other day, which placed infections a day at 96,000 – approaching the levels seen in the first wave.

Other researchers at King’s College London, however, predicted that England is seeing around 32,000 new symptomatic cases every day and claimed infections are rising ‘steadily’ but ‘have not spiralled out of control’..

Professor Tim Spector, the epidemiologist behind the King’s study, said the spread of Covid-19 in the UK currently appears ‘steady’ and may even be slowing in Scotland. The team estimated that Britain’s cases are doubling once a month and that the R rate was 1.1 in the week ending October 25.

Despite the varying estimates, Department of Health figures reveal that on average just 22,125 cases per day were identified last week, with a further 23,065 diagnosed yesterday.

Looking back on the numbers of people dying can also give an impression of how widely Covid-19 is spreading. Government officials estimate 0.5 per cent of coronavirus patients die, which suggest the average 154 people who died each day in the week up to October 23 was the result of 31,000 new daily infections at the start of the month.

Professor Spector said the King’s College team, working alongside health-tech company ZOE, wanted to ‘reassure’ people that the situation did not seem to be as bad as ‘other surveys’ had suggested. 

Percentage change in coronavirus cases across London in the week to October 25: The five local authorities where the infection rate grew the most are: Kingston upon Hull City, 92.81 per cent; Derby, 91.84 per cent; North Somerset, 82.99 per cent; Medway, 77.17 per cent; and Bath and North East Somerset 69.72 per cent

Percentage change in coronavirus cases across London in the week to October 25: The five local authorities where the infection rate grew the most are: Kingston upon Hull City, 92.81 per cent; Derby, 91.84 per cent; North Somerset, 82.99 per cent; Medway, 77.17 per cent; and Bath and North East Somerset 69.72 per cent

 Percentage change in coronavirus cases across London in the week to October 25: The five local authorities where the infection rate grew the most are: Kingston upon Hull City, 92.81 per cent; Derby, 91.84 per cent; North Somerset, 82.99 per cent; Medway, 77.17 per cent; and Bath and North East Somerset 69.72 per cent

Almost 60 per cent of the population – around 32.6 million – will be under stricter rules by Monday

Almost 60 per cent of the population – around 32.6 million – will be under stricter rules by Monday

Almost 60 per cent of the population – around 32.6 million – will be under stricter rules by Monday

WHERE DID THE INFECTION RATE GROW THE MOST? 

Kingston upon Hull, City of 92.81%

Derby 91.84%

North Somerset 82.99%

Medway 77.17%

Bath and North East Somerset 69.72%

South Gloucestershire 62.13%

Herefordshire, County of 58.10%

Derbyshire 57.98%

Stoke-on-Trent 56.79%

Lincolnshire 55.26%

Staffordshire 55.21%

Leicestershire 54.29%

Southampton 54.02%

Brighton and Hove 52.57%

Milton Keynes 50.88%

Swindon 49.99%

East Riding of Yorkshire 49.32%

Dudley 49.07%

West Sussex 46.89%

Leicester 46.57%

 

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It comes after Public Health England data published today revealed Covid-19 outbreaks are growing fastest in Hull, Derby and Bath, and that only 20 of all 150 authorities in England saw a drop in infections last week. 

Hull and Derby saw their coronavirus epidemics almost double in the seven-day spell ending October 25, with seven-day infection rates jumping to 279 and 329 cases per 100,000 people, respectively.

Both cities, along with the rest of Staffordshire and Derbyshire, will be moved from Tier One into Tier Two from Saturday to try and stem the rise in infections, it was announced yesterday as England crept another step closer towards a full national lockdown.

But most of the authorities where epidemics have grown the most remain in Tier One, where only the rule of six and 10pm curfew apply. Scientists have argued these rules are not stringent enough to shrink the outbreak, with top Government advisers warning the current growth is ‘very bleak’.

For example, North Somerset and Bath and North East Somerset, where cases jumped up 83 per cent and 70 per cent in one week, have yet to be hit by any tougher virus-controlling restrictions. It comes despite warnings that the coronavirus crisis is ‘speeding up’ in the south of the country.

Meanwhile, figures from Public Health England’s weekly surveillance report show the infection rate has fallen in Nottingham by 30 per cent. Despite the city’s outbreak shrinking, it will be thrown under the toughest Tier Three restrictions from tomorrow, along with the rest of the county.

And the data offered more proof that the tightest lockdown measures do work, with Liverpool, Knowsley, Sefton and St Helens all seeing their weekly coronavirus infection rates drop. All of the Merseyside area has been under Tier Three lockdown since October 14.

It suggests the brutal restrictions — which ban people from socialising with anyone outside their own household and mean many pubs, bars, and in some cases gyms, have to close — are beginning to work. However, scientists say the true effect of measure won’t be clear until a few weeks have passed.

PHE’s data is based on the number of positive swabs within the week October 19 to 25. The new infections can be divided by the population size for each given area to give a case rate per 100,000 people. This allows for figures between different areas to be compared accurately. 

Earlier this week, Derby’s director of public health, Dr Robyn Dewis, called for all the city’s 259,000 residents to start adhering to Tier Two restrictions.

The advice came in anticipation of being moved into the higher level, which ministers confirmed last night would be happening. Amber Valley, Bolsover, Derbyshire Dales, Derby City, South Derbyshire, and the whole of High Peak will be moved into Tier Two as of Saturday.

Dr Dewis told MailOnline: ‘I can never feel pleased to be asking our residents to make restrictions in their daily lives, however I do feel that it is urgent that we take action to reduce the spread of the virus.

‘We have seen a rapid growth across the city with all wards affected. Importantly we are now seeing a significant increase in the over 60s who are infected.’

This post first appeared on dailymail.co.uk

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Coronavirus UK: 19 NHS trusts have more patients than in April

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coronavirus uk 19 nhs trusts have more patients than in april

Almost 20 NHS trusts in England are already treating more coronavirus patients than at the peak of the first wave, according to official statistics that come amid warnings hospitals across the country could run out of beds before Christmas.

Trusts in hotspots such as Nottingham, Liverpool and Doncaster are seeing up to three times the number of Covid-19 patients compared to in mid-April, with five months of winter still to go.

But there is some reason to be optimistic, given that, overall, total beds occupied by Covid-19 sufferers across the country are still only half of what they were during the darkest days of the crisis in spring. Even in April, hospitals were not overwhelmed.

However, hospitals are filling up with infected patients quickly – spiking by about a third every week – and the fact several trusts have surpassed spring levels already will be a cause for concern so early into winter. As the country moves deeper into the colder months, people tend to get sicker from a slew of other illnesses and need care, which heaps even more pressure on hospitals.

MailOnline’s analysis of official NHS figures reveals 19 trusts are treating higher numbers of Covid-19 patients than at the first peak. They are mostly in Tier Three lockdown areas such as Nottinghamshire, Lancashire, Greater Manchester and Yorkshire. But even Tier Two towns, cities and boroughs in the North East, South West, East Yorkshire and the North Midlands are seeing significant rises.

Boris Johnson, who was infamously against lockdowns before the first peak in April, has been warned by his scientific advisers that every hospital in England is on track to be full with Covid-infected patients by December 17 unless he orders more shutdowns.

The Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab today hinted the Government could introduce a new Tier Four set of even stricter coronavirus restrictions as pressure mounts on Number 10 to thwart a deadly second peak. He refused to rule out another national lockdown, which has been seen in the likes of Germany and France.

SCROLL DOWN TO SEE HOW BUSY YOUR HOSPITAL IS

Almost 20 NHS trusts in England are already treating more coronavirus patients than at the peak of the first wave, according to official statistics that come amid warnings hospitals across the country could run out of beds before Christmas

Almost 20 NHS trusts in England are already treating more coronavirus patients than at the peak of the first wave, according to official statistics that come amid warnings hospitals across the country could run out of beds before Christmas

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Doncaster and Bassetlaw Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust has three times as many infected patients on its wards now compared to April 12 – England’s busiest day in the pandemic. Just 67 beds were occupied by people with the disease then, compared to 201 on October 27, the most recent snapshot published by the NHS. 

At Blackpool Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, 196 of its beds were taken up by Covid-19 patients on October 27. It marked a 68 per cent jump compared to levels on April 12, when doctors there were treating 117 infected people.

There are 104 coronavirus sufferers currently being treated in Barnsley Hospital NHS Foundation Trust in South Yorkshire, according to the most recent snapshot from NHS England. This is compared to 63 six months ago, marking a rise of almost two-thirds. 

WHERE ARE THE 19 TRUSTS? AND HOW DO LEVELS COMPARE TO APRIL? 

NHS TRUST

Doncaster and Bassetlaw Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust

Mersey Care NHS Foundation Trust

Blackpool Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust

Tees, Esk and Wear Valleys NHS Foundation Trust

Barnsley Hospital NHS Foundation Trust

Torbay and South Devon NHS Foundation Trust

East Lancashire Hospitals NHS Trust

Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust

Warrington and Halton Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust

Liverpool University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust

University Hospitals of North Midlands NHS Trust

Wrightington, Wigan and Leigh NHS Foundation Trust

North Tees and Hartlepool NHS Foundation Trust

Bradford Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust

Hull University Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust

Rotherham Doncaster and South Humber NHS Foundation Trust

Pennine Acute Hospitals NHS Trust

Leeds Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust

Sherwood Forest Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust

COVID BEDS APRIL 12

67

 

 

9

   

117

 

3

     

63

   

 

23      

 

122

 

210

 

 

98

 

 

346

 

   

134

   

93

   

 

73

     

88

 

   

44

 

 

6

 

   

259

   

230    

 

53

   

COVID BEDS OCT 27

201

 

 

21

   

196

 

5

   

104

   

 

33    

 

170

 

289

 

 

128

 

 

450    

 

 

171

   

116

 

 

91

 

109

 

   

54

 

 

7

 

   

290

   

236

   

54

 

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East Lancashire Hospitals NHS Trust currently has 170 people with Covid-19 on its ward compared to 122 in spring, a rise of nearly 40 per cent. A similar story has played out at Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust, where patient levels have risen from 210 to 289 (38 per cent).

Liverpool University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust has 450 virus patients getting care in its Merseyside hospitals, up more than 30 cent on the 346 patients being treated for the disease on April 12. Warrington and Halton Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust has seen the same rate of increase, going from 98 to 128.

Wrightington, Wigan and Leigh NHS Foundation Trust, North Tees and Hartlepool NHS Foundation Trust and Bradford Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust are seeing more than 20 per cent more patients now than in April.

Meanwhile, in Tier Two lockdown areas there have been similar surges in the number of beds occupied by Covid-19 sufferers. Hull University Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust, in East Yorkshire, has 54 infected patients, up from 44 six months ago, a rise of 23 per cent. 

University Hospitals of North Midlands NHS Trust has 171 infected people on its wards, up more than a quarter from April 12, when there were 124. 

Torbay and South Devon NHS Foundation Trust in the South West has technically seen a surge of 44 per cent, though it has far fewer beds than some of the bigger trusts in major cities. As of yesterday it was treating 33 Covid-19 patients compared to 23 on April 12. 

The caveat with these figures is that they only go up to October 27, meaning there is no way to tell how many patients have been discharged since Wednesday. But it is not expected to have changed significantly.

Covid-19 hospital admissions lag by around two to three weeks because of a delay in the time it takes for someone to fall ill enough with the virus to need care – so there is also a chance they have continued to rise.

Since October 20, when MailOnline last analysed these NHS figures, there has been a 38 per cent rise in the total number of coronavirus-infected patients occupying hospital beds across England. Seven days ago there were 6,055 patients, compared to 8,337 on October 27. 

The number of patients hooked up to mechanical ventilators also rose 25 per cent in the same time frame, jumping from 3,298 to 4,122. 

Figures like these will be used as evidence for more lockdowns. SAGE, the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, has told the PM hospitals could be completely overrun by December unless the virus’ current trajectory can be curtailed.

However, the silver lining is that, overall, total beds occupied by Covid-19 sufferers across the country are less than half of what they were during the darkest days of the crisis on April 12, when the figure was 18,970.

Even at the peak of the first wave, only a quarter of all of England’s hospital beds were occupied by coronavirus patients, on average.  

Latest figures suggest the country has about 110,000 beds at its disposal, plus thousands more in the Nightingale hospitals built during the first wave which went unused. 

Thousands of private beds were also commandeered to give the NHS some breathing room if it’s faced with a surge in Covid-19 admissions.  

Yet sources insisted today that more lockdowns were needed or else every hospital in England will be full by December 17. 

The forecast of no beds being available by December 17 is understood to include the emergency ‘Nightingale’ wards.

A well-placed source said: ‘Ministers have been told in clear terms that if no further action is taken, at the present rate of rising infections, every hospital bed in England will be full by December 17.

‘They would have no choice but to turn people away, including additional Covid patients, people who have heart attacks, cancer, road accident victims – because there would be no beds to put them in or staff to treat them.

‘There could be a repeat here of the scenes in Lombardy in Italy at the start of the pandemic: the sick put in operating rooms or corridors.

‘Hospital admissions are forecast to go up slowly for the next few weeks but shoot up towards Christmas. People don’t realise that social distancing measures can mean only ten beds in a ward meant to take 20.

‘And there is a finite number of trained ICU [intensive care unit] staff – you cannot do it without special training.’  

Hospitals could run out of beds by December 17 

Boris Johnson has been told that every hospital in England will be full by December 17 unless he orders more lockdowns.

The blunt warning emerged a day after a leaked Sage committee document revealed that ministers had been told to prepare for a ‘worst case scenario’ of 85,000 deaths.

Last night, a Downing Street source confirmed the Government had been advised that hospitals in England could run out of beds by Christmas but declined to give a precise date.

Government insiders insist there is evidence that NHS beds in cities like Liverpool, which are already in Tier Three lockdown, are already running out.

The forecast of no beds being available by December 17 is understood to include the emergency ‘Nightingale’ wards.

However Mr Johnson is under pressure from powerful groups who are demanding he resist any new nationwide measures.

Tory MPs in the so-called ‘Red Wall’ Northern seats claim their lockdowns are not working and are unfair.

‘Some medical experts claim lockdowns will lead to more deaths among people with cancer and other serious illnesses.

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Despite a mid-September surge in infections, Britain’s hospitals enjoyed low hospital and death rates because transmission was being driven by young people who are resistant to Covid-19’s most severe symptoms.

But the rise in hospital admissions is a stark reminder the disease is now rife among older demographics, who are vulnerable to falling seriously unwell.     

A Public Health England report published on Thursday suggested the problem could accelerate in the coming weeks because infections among over-70s and over-80s, who are the most at-risk groups, are rising by a quarter a week. 

In the weekly national Influenza and Covid-19 surveillance report, PHE found the rate of infection per 100,000 in England for the 70-79 age group was 110, up from 88 the week before. While for people aged 80 and over it was 156.7, up from 125.6.

The NHS England data also reveals that of all the regions in England, the South East recorded the largest spikes in the number of patients admitted and the number of patients on ventilators, NHS England data reveals.

The region’s admissions jumped 53 per cent, from 276 patients to 423, while the number on ventilators surged 68 per cent, from 76 to 128.

The East of England – which has also so far escaped stricter curbs – recorded the second largest spike in hospital admissions, up 52 per cent from 209 to 318, and the third highest spike in ventilator use, up 37 per cent from 136 to 186.

The Midlands registered the third highest spike in hospital admissions, up 47 per cent from 919 to 1,347, and second highest in ventilator use, up 43 per cent from 640 to 912.

In the North West – where 9million people are under the harshest restrictions in England, hospital admissions rose by the lowest rate in England, at nine per cent.

But they still accounted for the largest number of admissions across the UK nation. NHS England data shows they rose from 1,649 to 1,796.

Considering Covid-19 patients on ventilators, figures showed they also had the highest number in England – at 1,309. 

This marked a 27 per cent rise – the fifth highest – from 1,029 recorded the week before.

In the North East, which has also been under stricter measures due to surging infections, hospitals struggled against the fourth highest rise in admissions, by 44 per cent, but had the lowest rise in the number of patients on ventilators, by two per cent.

Nonetheless, their total number of patients needing the machines is the third highest in England. 

NHS England figures show 1,739 patients were newly admitted to hospital with Covid-19, up from 1,209 the previous week. And the number of patients on ventilators rose to 790 from 771 the previous week. 

HOW BUSY IS YOUR HOSPITAL?
Apr-12 Oct-29
NHS TRUST TOTAL BEDS COVID BEDS % OCCUPANCY VENTILATORS COVID BEDS VENTILATORS % OF PEAK (BEDS) % OF BEDS (MV)
Doncaster and Bassetlaw Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust 415 67 16.14% 6 201 3 300.00% 50.00%
Mersey Care NHS Foundation Trust 614 9 1.47% 0 21 0 233.33%
Blackpool Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust 438 117 26.71% 22 196 18 167.52% 81.82%
Tees, Esk and Wear Valleys NHS Foundation Trust 541 3 0.55% 0 5 0 166.67%
Barnsley Hospital NHS Foundation Trust 263 63 23.95% 10 104 10 165.08% 100.00%
Torbay and South Devon NHS Foundation Trust 195 23 11.79% 6 33 2 143.48% 33.33%
East Lancashire Hospitals NHS Trust 482 122 25.31% 25 170 23 139.34% 92.00%
Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust 839 210 25.03% 58 289 21 137.62% 36.21%
Warrington and Halton Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust 301 98 32.56% 27 128 19 130.61% 70.37%
Liverpool University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust 969 346 35.71% 37 450 30 130.06% 81.08%
University Hospitals of North Midlands NHS Trust 843 134 15.90% 64 171 17 127.61% 26.56%
Wrightington, Wigan and Leigh NHS Foundation Trust 258 93 36.05% 16 116 8 124.73% 50.00%
North Tees and Hartlepool NHS Foundation Trust 234 73 31.20% 18 91 8 124.66% 44.44%
Bradford Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust 356 88 24.72% 15 109 5 123.86% 33.33%
Hull University Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust 554 44 7.94% 42 54 7 122.73% 16.67%
Rotherham Doncaster and South Humber NHS Foundation Trust 182 6 3.30% 0 7 0 116.67%
Pennine Acute Hospitals NHS Trust 207 259 125.12% 27 290 21 111.97% 77.78%
Leeds Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust 76 230 302.63% 76 236 19 102.61% 25.00%
Sherwood Forest Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust 287 53 18.47% 24 54 7 101.89% 29.17%
Nottinghamshire Healthcare NHS Foundation Trust 354 18 5.08% 0 18 0 100.00%
University Hospitals Dorset NHS Foundation Trust 476 76 15.97% 7 74 4 97.37% 57.14%
Sheffield Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust 977 261 26.71% 36 249 18 95.40% 50.00%
Calderdale and Huddersfield NHS Foundation Trust 308 93 30.19% 26 86 4 92.47% 15.38%
Tameside and Glossop Integrated Care NHS Foundation Trust 242 74 30.58% 14 68 7 91.89% 50.00%
University Hospitals of Morecambe Bay NHS Foundation Trust 332 130 39.16% 11 115 5 88.46% 45.45%
Lancashire Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust 447 132 29.53% 12 114 3 86.36% 25.00%
Mid Yorkshire Hospitals NHS Trust 484 165 34.09% 24 142 9 86.06% 37.50%
North East London NHS Foundation Trust 281 49 17.44% 0 41 0 83.67%
Barking, Havering and Redbridge University Hospitals NHS Trust 815 171 20.98% 74 142 12 83.04% 16.22%
North Staffordshire Combined Healthcare NHS Trust 109 11 10.09% 0 9 0 81.82%
Birmingham and Solihull Mental Health NHS Foundation Trust 595 16 2.69% 0 13 0 81.25%
Stockport NHS Foundation Trust 374 117 31.28% 21 95 6 81.20% 28.57%
Gateshead Health NHS Foundation Trust 282 114 40.43% 14 92 8 80.70% 57.14%
St Helens and Knowsley Teaching Hospitals NHS Trust 454 153 33.70% 15 122 7 79.74% 46.67%
Norfolk Community Health and Care NHS Trust 178 16 8.99% 0 12 0 75.00%
Wye Valley NHS Trust 171 31 18.13% 7 23 1 74.19% 14.29%
Northern Devon Healthcare NHS Trust 143 15 10.49% 4 11 0 73.33% 0.00%
Southport and Ormskirk Hospital NHS Trust 336 104 30.95% 15 76 8 73.08% 53.33%
South Tyneside and Sunderland NHS Foundation Trust 519 200 38.54% 14 140 4 70.00% 28.57%
University Hospitals of Derby and Burton NHS Foundation Trust 794 225 28.34% 29 152 12 67.56% 41.38%
County Durham and Darlington NHS Foundation Trust 468 129 27.56% 23 87 9 67.44% 39.13%
Salford Royal NHS Foundation Trust 101 136 134.65% 27 90 17 66.18% 62.96%
Chesterfield Royal Hospital NHS Foundation Trust 270 65 24.07% 17 43 14 66.15% 82.35%
United Lincolnshire Hospitals NHS Trust 435 72 16.55% 19 47 5 65.28% 26.32%
Greater Manchester Mental Health NHS Foundation Trust 796 18 2.26% 0 11 0 61.11%
Dartford and Gravesham NHS Trust 289 79 27.34% 28 46 0 58.23% 0.00%
Wirral University Teaching Hospital NHS Foundation Trust 397 128 32.24% 12 73 7 57.03% 58.33%
West London NHS Trust 419 32 7.64% 0 18 0 56.25%
Airedale NHS Foundation Trust 172 58 33.72% 7 32 2 55.17% 28.57%
Lancashire & South Cumbria NHS Foundation Trust 310 19 6.13% 0 10 0 52.63%
Sandwell and West Birmingham Hospitals NHS Trust 488 214 43.85% 32 112 13 52.34% 40.63%
University Hospitals of Leicester NHS Trust 931 195 20.95% 59 102 9 52.31% 15.25%
The Newcastle Upon Tyne Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust 641 141 22.00% 72 73 11 51.77% 15.28%
East Suffolk and North Essex NHS Foundation Trust 828 123 14.86% 34 63 5 51.22% 14.71%
South Tees Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust 173 145 83.82% 34 74 10 51.03% 29.41%
Royal Surrey County Hospital NHS Foundation Trust 207 63 30.43% 18 32 0 50.79% 0.00%
University Hospitals Bristol and Weston NHS Foundation Trust 361 81 22.44% 28 41 7 50.62% 25.00%
Northumbria Healthcare NHS Foundation Trust 462 134 29.00% 19 67 9 50.00% 47.37%
Humber Teaching NHS Foundation Trust 153 6 3.92% 0 3 0 50.00%
Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust 471 414 87.90% 35 207 14 50.00% 40.00%
Countess of Chester Hospital NHS Foundation Trust 307 120 39.09% 19 60 4 50.00% 21.05%
East Cheshire NHS Trust 190 57 30.00% 7 28 1 49.12% 14.29%
Leicestershire Partnership NHS Trust 355 31 8.73% 0 15 0 48.39%
The Dudley Group NHS Foundation Trust 467 122 26.12% 15 58 5 47.54% 33.33%
Coventry and Warwickshire Partnership NHS Trust 249 19 7.63% 0 9 0 47.37%
Harrogate and District NHS Foundation Trust 130 34 26.15% 6 16 2 47.06% 33.33%
Midlands Partnership NHS Foundation Trust 345 28 8.12% 0 13 0 46.43%
James Paget University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust 214 74 34.58% 8 34 1 45.95% 12.50%
Kettering General Hospital NHS Foundation Trust 421 69 16.39% 24 31 2 44.93% 8.33%
Black Country Healthcare NHS Foundation Trust 212 16 7.55% 0 7 0 43.75%
Royal Devon and Exeter NHS Foundation Trust 330 54 16.36% 7 23 2 42.59% 28.57%
Hampshire Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust 418 139 33.25% 17 59 1 42.45% 5.88%
Epsom and St Helier University Hospitals NHS Trust 468 148 31.62% 30 61 5 41.22% 16.67%
Bolton NHS Foundation Trust 344 141 40.99% 25 58 4 41.13% 16.00%
Shrewsbury and Telford Hospital NHS Trust 312 77 24.68% 20 31 5 40.26% 25.00%
North Bristol NHS Trust 620 107 17.26% 17 43 0 40.19% 0.00%
Birmingham Women’s and Children’s NHS Foundation Trust 308 5 1.62% 32 2 0 40.00% 0.00%
The Queen Elizabeth Hospital, King’s Lynn, NHS Foundation Trust 259 51 19.69% 11 20 0 39.22% 0.00%
Walsall Healthcare NHS Trust 367 180 49.05% 20 68 8 37.78% 40.00%
Birmingham Community Healthcare NHS Foundation Trust 257 53 20.62% 0 20 0 37.74%
Lincolnshire Community Health Services NHS Trust 112 16 14.29% 0 6 0 37.50%
Somerset NHS Foundation Trust 444 32 7.21% 8 12 0 37.50% 0.00%
Royal United Hospitals Bath NHS Foundation Trust 257 43 16.73% 20 16 4 37.21% 20.00%
University Hospitals Plymouth NHS Trust 404 89 22.03% 0 32 2 35.96%
University Hospitals Birmingham NHS Foundation Trust 1731 694 40.09% 158 232 30 33.43% 18.99%
Pennine Care NHS Foundation Trust 416 31 7.45% 0 10 0 32.26%
Medway NHS Foundation Trust 316 106 33.54% 24 34 4 32.08% 16.67%
Frimley Health NHS Foundation Trust 696 276 39.66% 36 88 3 31.88% 8.33%
Mid and South Essex NHS Foundation Trust 829 374 45.11% 90 112 9 29.95% 10.00%
York Teaching Hospital NHS Foundation Trust 351 108 30.77% 21 31 1 28.70% 4.76%
Mid Cheshire Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust 309 85 27.51% 10 24 6 28.24% 60.00%
North West Anglia NHS Foundation Trust 482 78 16.18% 26 22 3 28.21% 11.54%
Great Western Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust 273 64 23.44% 17 18 1 28.13% 5.88%
West Hertfordshire Hospitals NHS Trust 328 129 39.33% 22 36 2 27.91% 9.09%
Northampton General Hospital NHS Trust 489 104 21.27% 9 29 2 27.88% 22.22%
Worcestershire Acute Hospitals NHS Trust 518 128 24.71% 25 34 6 26.56% 24.00%
East Sussex Healthcare NHS Trust 350 68 19.43% 20 18 2 26.47% 10.00%
Royal Berkshire NHS Foundation Trust 491 142 28.92% 26 37 0 26.06% 0.00%
The Hillingdon Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust 277 102 36.82% 10 26 4 25.49% 40.00%
Bedfordshire Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust 684 180 26.32% 38 45 8 25.00% 21.05%
West Suffolk NHS Foundation Trust 201 36 17.91% 10 9 1 25.00% 10.00%
Leeds and York Partnership NHS Foundation Trust 317 8 2.52% 0 2 0 25.00%
Norfolk and Norwich University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust 555 77 13.87% 12 19 1 24.68% 8.33%
East and North Hertfordshire NHS Trust 388 65 16.75% 24 16 2 24.62% 8.33%
Dorset Healthcare University NHS Foundation Trust 277 29 10.47% 24 7 0 24.14% 0.00%
Chelsea and Westminster Hospital NHS Foundation Trust 457 243 53.17% 45 58 4 23.87% 8.89%
Portsmouth Hospitals NHS Trust 614 130 21.17% 26 31 4 23.85% 15.38%
Dorset County Hospital NHS Foundation Trust 191 17 8.90% 8 4 1 23.53% 12.50%
Ashford and St Peter’s Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust 285 114 40.00% 26 26 1 22.81% 3.85%
Brighton and Sussex University Hospitals NHS Trust 525 107 20.38% 13 24 1 22.43% 7.69%
North Middlesex University Hospital NHS Trust 418 226 54.07% 27 50 3 22.12% 11.11%
Whittington Health NHS Trust 184 83 45.11% 18 18 2 21.69% 11.11%
University Hospital Southampton NHS Foundation Trust 718 166 23.12% 66 36 1 21.69% 1.52%
Oxford University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust 578 125 21.63% 54 25 0 20.00% 0.00%
University Hospitals Coventry and Warwickshire NHS Trust 693 142 20.49% 29 28 9 19.72% 31.03%
Worcestershire Health and Care NHS Trust 224 37 16.52% 0 7 0 18.92%
The Royal Wolverhampton NHS Trust 401 228 56.86% 31 42 2 18.42% 6.45%
Cheshire and Wirral Partnership NHS Foundation Trust 218 11 5.05% 0 2 0 18.18%
East London NHS Foundation Trust 665 73 10.98% 0 13 0 17.81%
North Cumbria Integrated Care NHS Foundation Trust 350 152 43.43% 12 26 3 17.11% 25.00%
Barts Health NHS Trust 1196 559 46.74% 162 95 21 16.99% 12.96%
Berkshire Healthcare NHS Foundation Trust 196 48 24.49% 0 8 0 16.67%
Cumbria, Northumberland, Tyne and Wear NHS Foundation Trust 634 43 6.78% 0 7 0 16.28%
London North West University Healthcare NHS Trust 771 357 46.30% 41 58 6 16.25% 14.63%
Kingston Hospital NHS Foundation Trust 223 101 45.29% 24 16 2 15.84% 8.33%
Avon and Wiltshire Mental Health Partnership NHS Trust 346 19 5.49% 0 3 0 15.79%
Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust 130 334 256.92% 128 52 12 15.57% 9.38%
The Princess Alexandra Hospital NHS Trust 273 109 39.93% 25 16 4 14.68% 16.00%
Milton Keynes University Hospital NHS Foundation Trust 177 66 37.29% 10 9 0 13.64% 0.00%
Central London Community Healthcare NHS Trust 161 44 27.33% 0 6 0 13.64%
South Warwickshire NHS Foundation Trust 313 75 23.96% 3 10 1 13.33% 33.33%
Surrey and Sussex Healthcare NHS Trust 351 128 36.47% 26 17 0 13.28% 0.00%
Salisbury NHS Foundation Trust 184 38 20.65% 16 5 3 13.16% 18.75%
Royal Cornwall Hospitals NHS Trust 233 32 13.73% 0 4 3 12.50%
Lewisham and Greenwich NHS Trust 764 286 37.43% 52 34 6 11.89% 11.54%
St George’s University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust 469 219 46.70% 97 26 6 11.87% 6.19%
Essex Partnership University NHS Foundation Trust 445 34 7.64% 0 4 0 11.76%
George Eliot Hospital NHS Trust 216 69 31.94% 5 8 2 11.59% 40.00%
Central and North West London NHS Foundation Trust 603 37 6.14% 0 4 0 10.81%
King’s College Hospital NHS Foundation Trust 154 509 330.52% 136 54 5 10.61% 3.68%
Croydon Health Services NHS Trust 352 153 43.47% 17 16 0 10.46% 0.00%
University College London Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust 367 160 43.60% 70 16 5 10.00% 7.14%
Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust 525 122 23.24% 57 12 1 9.84% 1.75%
Royal Free London NHS Foundation Trust 743 410 55.18% 89 39 9 9.51% 10.11%
Gloucestershire Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust 262 148 56.49% 34 14 0 9.46% 0.00%
Maidstone and Tunbridge Wells NHS Trust 191 85 44.50% 24 8 2 9.41% 8.33%
Guy’s and St Thomas’ NHS Foundation Trust 699 303 43.35% 119 26 10 8.58% 8.40%
Royal Brompton & Harefield NHS Foundation Trust 157 96 61.15% 81 8 6 8.33% 7.41%
Royal Papworth Hospital NHS Foundation Trust 155 49 31.61% 68 4 4 8.16% 5.88%
Southern Health NHS Foundation Trust 457 49 10.72% 0 4 0 8.16%
Western Sussex Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust 501 77 15.37% 25 6 1 7.79% 4.00%
East Kent Hospitals University NHS Foundation Trust 508 143 28.15% 42 11 1 7.69% 2.38%
Yeovil District Hospital NHS Foundation Trust 148 14 9.46% 9 1 1 7.14% 11.11%
Buckinghamshire Healthcare NHS Trust 316 86 27.22% 24 6 1 6.98% 4.17%
Norfolk and Suffolk NHS Foundation Trust 312 16 5.13% 0 1 0 6.25%
Homerton University Hospital NHS Foundation Trust 193 90 46.63% 19 5 1 5.56% 5.26%
Oxleas NHS Foundation Trust 323 22 6.81% 0 1 0 4.55%
Sussex Community NHS Foundation Trust 250 47 18.80% 0 2 0 4.26%
North West Boroughs Healthcare NHS Foundation Trust 190 25 13.16% 0 1 0 4.00%
Cambridgeshire and Peterborough NHS Foundation Trust 162 7 4.32% 0 0 0 0.00%
Hertfordshire Partnership University NHS Foundation Trust 362 14 3.87% 0 0 0 0.00%
The Royal Marsden NHS Foundation Trust 116 10 8.62% 6 0 0 0.00% 0.00%
South West London and St George’s Mental Health NHS Trust 267 9 3.37% 0 0 0 0.00%
Barnet, Enfield and Haringey Mental Health NHS Trust 490 19 3.88% 0 0 0 0.00%
Camden and Islington NHS Foundation Trust 136 20 14.71% 0 0 0 0.00%
Northamptonshire Healthcare NHS Foundation Trust 249 14 5.62% 0 0 0 0.00%
Lincolnshire Partnership NHS Foundation Trust 161 2 1.24% 0 0 0 0.00%
Derbyshire Healthcare NHS Foundation Trust 158 9 5.70% 0 0 0 0.00%
Bradford District Care NHS Foundation Trust 153 12 7.84% 0 0 0 0.00%
Sheffield Health & Social Care NHS Foundation Trust 180 5 2.78% 0 0 0 0.00%
Oxford Health NHS Foundation Trust 400 55 13.75% 0 0 0 0.00%
Kent and Medway NHS and Social Care Partnership Trust 353 12 3.40% 0 0 0 0.00%
Kent Community Health NHS Foundation Trust 303 38 12.54% 0 0 0 0.00%
Cornwall Partnership NHS Foundation Trust 252 50 19.84% 6 0 0 0.00% 0.00%
Gloucestershire Health and Care NHS Foundation Trust 230 78 33.91% 0 0 0 0.00%
Devon Partnership NHS Trust 225 1 0.44% 0 0 0 0.00%
South West Yorkshire Partnership NHS Foundation Trust 385 0 0.00% 0 9 0
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