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How unemployment could take 14 years to fall below six per cent based on past Australian recessions

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how unemployment could take 14 years to fall below six per cent based on past australian recessions

Australia’s unemployment could take 14 years to fall back to pre-COVID levels if recession history is any guide.

In February, the month before the coronavirus shutdowns, the national jobless rate stood at 5.1 per cent.

By July, it hit 7.5 per cent – a level unseen since late 1998 during the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis – as the economy sunk into recession for the first time in 29 years.

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg last week told the ABC the government would be providing substantial support for the economy until the jobless rate was ‘comfortably under six per cent’.

Australia's unemployment could take 14 years to fall back to pre-COVID levels if recession history is any guide. By July, it hit 7.5 per cent - a level unseen since late 1998 during the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis - as the economy sunk into recession for the first time in 29 years.

Australia's unemployment could take 14 years to fall back to pre-COVID levels if recession history is any guide. By July, it hit 7.5 per cent - a level unseen since late 1998 during the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis - as the economy sunk into recession for the first time in 29 years.

Australia’s unemployment could take 14 years to fall back to pre-COVID levels if recession history is any guide. By July, it hit 7.5 per cent – a level unseen since late 1998 during the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis – as the economy sunk into recession for the first time in 29 years.

While unemployment in August fell back to 6.8 per cent, another wave of COVID-19 could see it climb again.

Unemployment during the last recessions

Unemployment took 14 years to fall back below six per cent from December 1989, during a period which covered 18 per cent interest rates and the 1991 recession

The jobless rate took eight years to fall below six per cent from October 1981, covering two recessions spanning 1981, 1982 and 1983 – during a drought and a change of government

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In the lead-up to Australia’s previous recession almost three decades ago, the unemployment rate climbed from 5.8 per cent in December 1989, during an era of 18 per cent interest rates, and was at double digits less than two years later.

By December 1992, unemployment hit 11.2 per cent for the first time since the 1930s Great Depression.

The jobless level didn’t fall below six per cent until August 2003 – taking 14 years to fall to late 1980s levels.

Unemployment didn’t take quite as long to recover following the two recessions of the early 1980s.

The jobless rate rose from 5.9 per cent in October 1981, peaked at 10.5 per cent in June 1983 and fell back below six per cent by August 1989 – an eight-year journey.

The Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday left interest rates on hold at a record low of 0.25 per cent but warned unemployment would take several years to fall to pre-COVID levels. 

‘Labour market conditions have improved somewhat over the past few months and the unemployment rate is likely to peak at a lower rate than earlier expected,’ RBA governor Philip Lowe said.

‘Even so, unemployment and underemployment are likely to remain high for an extended period.’ 

Before and after the recessions of the 1980s and 1990s, unemployment took eight and 14 years, respectively, to fall back below six per cent. Pictured is the late former prime minister Bob Hawke in 1988 (right) with his treasurer Paul Keating

Before and after the recessions of the 1980s and 1990s, unemployment took eight and 14 years, respectively, to fall back below six per cent. Pictured is the late former prime minister Bob Hawke in 1988 (right) with his treasurer Paul Keating

Before and after the recessions of the 1980s and 1990s, unemployment took eight and 14 years, respectively, to fall back below six per cent. Pictured is the late former prime minister Bob Hawke in 1988 (right) with his treasurer Paul Keating 

In August, the RBA forecast unemployment would peak at ten per cent by the end of 2020 and fall to seven per cent by December 2022.

Treasury’s Economic and Fiscal Update released in July had unemployment reaching 8.75 per cent by the end of June 2021.  

Tuesday’s night’s updated Budget forecasts are likely to show unemployment remaining high. 

Mr Frydenberg’s second budget is also likely to predict gross government debt surpassing the $1trillion mark for the first time ever.

Government borrowing as a proportion of the economy would comprise more than 50 per cent – something that hasn’t been seen since World War II.

This time, the war is on unemployment caused by an invisible enemy.  

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg last week told the ABC the government would be providing substantial support for the economy until the jobless rate was 'comfortably under six per cent'

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg last week told the ABC the government would be providing substantial support for the economy until the jobless rate was 'comfortably under six per cent'

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg last week told the ABC the government would be providing substantial support for the economy until the jobless rate was ‘comfortably under six per cent’

This post first appeared on dailymail.co.uk

Australia

Western Australia opens to tourists from 14 November

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western australia opens to tourists from 14 november

Tourists and split-apart families will finally be allowed in to Western Australia as the state brings down its hard border after seven months.

Premier Mark McGowan on Friday announced a plan, recommended by his health experts, to adopt a ‘controlled border regime’ on 14 November.

Travellers from areas with no local coronavirus cases for 28 days – which currently include everywhere except NSW and Victoria – will be allowed to enter the state without quarantine.

They will have to fill out a G2G border pass and take a temperature check at Perth Airport or a land border checkpoint and may be asked to take a coronavirus test. 

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35029692 8896105 image m 160 1604036899462

Passengers from places that have a 14-day rolling average of less than five cases per day – which includes NSW and Victoria – will be allowed to enter but must quarantine at a ‘suitable premise’ for two weeks.

They must also take a test on day 11 of their quarantine.  

Essential workers such as truck drivers will still be able to apply for an exemption from self quarantine. 

The announcement comes after a poll by the Tourism Council of WA on Tuesday found 70 per cent of West Australians wanted to border to be relaxed.

Western Australia, which has not had a case of community transmission for six months and 19 days, has banned travellers from any state since April 11. 

Mr McGowan said the ban, which separated families and stopped WA residents returning home, was the state’s ‘best defence’ against coronavirus. 

‘We took the opportunity and did the unthinkable, we closed our border. We turned WA into an island within an island and it worked,’ he said. 

‘I will have no hesitation to reintroduce the hard border if that’s what’s needed to protect the health of Western Australians,’ he added. 

NSW Premier Gladys has said her state will never achieve 28 days without community transmission, meaning residents will always have to quarantine to enter WA.

Mr McGowan admitted:  ‘We have a tough approach and we make no apology for that.’ 

He said the main threat to Western Australia is now from overseas and urged the federal government to be ‘very careful’ about relaxing the international border.

The premier said he did not agree with the idea home quarantine for returned overseas travellers and urged extreme caution in setting up travel bubbles and letting in international students.

Western Australia is removing its hard border on 14 November and replacing it with a 'controlled border' system. Pictured: Premier Mark McGowan

Western Australia is removing its hard border on 14 November and replacing it with a 'controlled border' system. Pictured: Premier Mark McGowan

Western Australia is removing its hard border on 14 November and replacing it with a ‘controlled border’ system. Pictured: Premier Mark McGowan

This post first appeared on dailymail.co.uk

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Donald Trump Jr. says COVID deaths ‘are almost nothing’ on the day nearly 1,000 Americans died

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donald trump jr says covid deaths are almost nothing on the day nearly 1000 americans died

Donald Trump Jr. on Thursday said COVID deaths ‘are almost nothing’ on the day nearly 1,000 Americans died from the virus and as cases hit a record high. 

The president’s oldest son told Fox News‘ Laura Ingraham that CNN‘s Sanjay Gupta and those who agree with him are ‘truly morons’ for warning voters who have attended his father’s rallies to quarantine for 14 days. 

Daily deaths remain low compared the counts seen in the spring, but are now creeping toward 1,000 a day, with 974 fatalities recorded Thursday, 994 on Wednesday and 985 fatalities reported Tuesday. More than 8 million Americans have tested positive; 228, 647 have died. 

Don Jr. said: ‘I put it on my Instagram a couple of days ago, because I went through the CDC, because I kept hearing about new infections. Why are they talking — why aren’t they talking about deaths? Oh, oh! Because the numbers are almost nothing, because we’ve gotten control of thing and we understand how it works.

‘We have the therapeutics to deal with it. If you look at my Instagram, [Covid deaths have] gone to almost nothing. We are outperforming Europe in a positive way. We’ve gotten a hold of it.’ 

With the presidential election just five days days away, coronavirus cases, hospitalizations and deaths are all on sharp upward track in the US as the average number of daily infections reached a record high on Wednesday. 

According to data through October 28 from Johns Hopkins University, the seven-day rolling average for daily new deaths rose over the past two weeks from 724 to 787. 

Donald Trump Jr., right, on Thursday said COVID deaths 'are almost nothing' on the day nearly 1,000 Americans died from the virus and as cases hit a record high. The president's oldest son appeared on the Laura Ingraham, left, show

Donald Trump Jr., right, on Thursday said COVID deaths 'are almost nothing' on the day nearly 1,000 Americans died from the virus and as cases hit a record high. The president's oldest son appeared on the Laura Ingraham, left, show

Donald Trump Jr., right, on Thursday said COVID deaths ‘are almost nothing’ on the day nearly 1,000 Americans died from the virus and as cases hit a record high. The president’s oldest son appeared on the Laura Ingraham, left, show

The president has repeatedly criticized Biden for saying he would follow the scientists and claimed the Democrat would shut the country down. 

And Don Jr, added: ‘They want to shutdown the country. Why don’t we shut down for 10 or 15 years, Laura? Why don’t we do that? Your kid can learn from their iPhone. 

‘They can go to school on their phone for the next five years. I’m sure that won’t affect their education.’ 

In a final interjection he said: ‘The rising case numbers are because they’re testing more. They don’t talk about that either.’

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35029106 8896045 image a 58 1604035374486

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35029104 8896045 image a 59 1604035378110

Health and Human Services Assistant Secretary Adm. Brett Giroir has said: ‘We do believe, and the data show, cases are going up — it’s not just a function of testing.’ 

The seven-day rolling average number of new daily cases hit a record high of 74,134, according to a DailyMail.com analysis of data from Johns Hopkins University. A total of 78,981 new infections were recorded on Wednesday. 

Hospitalizations have surged by 52 percent in the past month, with 45,045 people in the US hospitalized as of Wednesday. 

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35029102 8896045 image a 62 1604035419806

That’s the greatest number of people receiving inpatient care for COVID-19 since the July peak of nearly 60,000 hospitalizations. 

Health care facilities are near the point of buckling under the burden of these coronavirus patients. Hospitals beds and ICUs are running out in Wisconsin, Colorado and parts of Tennessee, Illinois and Ohio.        

Fifteen states have test positive rates of 10 per cent or higher, considered an indicator of widespread transmission. The picture is not all bleak because there are also states that have succeeded in curbing previous surges.

But test positive rates have been rising in 45 states, according to the COVID Tracking Project. 

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35029252 8896045 image a 60 1604035411146

This post first appeared on dailymail.co.uk

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P.E Nation’s Pip Edwards fires back as she’s hammered by trolls over Archibald Prize brouhaha

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p e nations pip edwards fires back as shes hammered by trolls over archibald prize brouhaha

Pip Edwards has had enough of trolls – losing patience with taunts about how her staff tried to stop a young artist entering a prestigious art prize with a portrait of her. 

The P.E Nation founder erupted on Instagram as her page unwittingly became a forum for heated debate over her PR chief’s treatment of Lauren Ferrier – some with unkind remarks. 

‘Pathetic not allowing that young women to enter that portrait of you into the Archibald Prize?!’ said one follower. ‘Oh boo hoo poor Pip’. 

The apparently frustrated high profile fashion designer fired back: ‘The artwork WAS entered into the Archibald!’ 

P.E Nation founder Pip Edwards has struck back at a troll after her Instagram page became a forum about the merits of her staff's response to the Archibald Prize controversy

P.E Nation founder Pip Edwards has struck back at a troll after her Instagram page became a forum about the merits of her staff's response to the Archibald Prize controversy

P.E Nation founder Pip Edwards has struck back at a troll after her Instagram page became a forum about the merits of her staff’s response to the Archibald Prize controversy

In an interview Ms Ferrier told Daily Mail Australia that Edwards was 'overwhelmingly' excited to have her portrait done in late 2019... but her staff were lukewarm about the finished product

In an interview Ms Ferrier told Daily Mail Australia that Edwards was 'overwhelmingly' excited to have her portrait done in late 2019... but her staff were lukewarm about the finished product

In an interview Ms Ferrier told Daily Mail Australia that Edwards was ‘overwhelmingly’ excited to have her portrait done in late 2019… but her staff were lukewarm about the finished product 

Edwards hit out at a troll - who later 'wholeheartedly' apologised and said it 'just sounded like the whole thing could have been handled better'

Edwards hit out at a troll - who later 'wholeheartedly' apologised and said it 'just sounded like the whole thing could have been handled better'

Edwards hit out at a troll – who later ‘wholeheartedly’ apologised and said it ‘just sounded like the whole thing could have been handled better’

This week Daily Mail Australia exclusively revealed emails showing how Edwards’ publicist Louise Gaffikin initially refused to sign off on Ms Ferrier’s painting. 

Ms Gaffikin wrote that the painting made Edwards look ‘much older beyond her years’ and said the imagery didn’t ‘align’ with the fashionista. 

‘I don’t think she could resonate with this painting and having it being put out to the public’ 
P.E Nation global head of public relations, Louise Gaffikin, in an email to artist Lauren Ferrier 

She suggested Ms Ferrier, who had worked on the painting for months, should produce a more ‘youthful’ alternative. 

While the publicist insisted that Edwards hadn’t seen the portrait yet, she simply couldn’t supply her crucial signature on a form because of that.  

Edwards eventually acquiesced and signed the form after Ms Ferrier warned her it wasn’t a matter of consent, rather an acknowledgment they had met.

Ms Gaffikin issued a statement about the brouhaha noting Edwards ‘appreciates’ the artist’s take and noting art is by its very nature often subjective. 

This (on left) is the email Pip Edwards' publicist sent artist Lauren Ferrier warning her that Edwards 'looks much older beyond her years' in the portrait

This (on left) is the email Pip Edwards' publicist sent artist Lauren Ferrier warning her that Edwards 'looks much older beyond her years' in the portrait

Above is the reply Ms Ferrier sent Ms Gaffikin following her delicately-worded refusal

Above is the reply Ms Ferrier sent Ms Gaffikin following her delicately-worded refusal

This (on left) is the email Pip Edwards’ publicist sent artist Lauren Ferrier warning her that Edwards ‘looks much older beyond her years’ in the portrait. Ms Ferrier responds on right 

Edwards hugged her mobile phone to her ear this week as the controversy took flight

Edwards hugged her mobile phone to her ear this week as the controversy took flight

Edwards hugged her mobile phone to her ear this week as the controversy took flight

But debate continues to rage about the portrait itself and their treatment of Ms Ferrier.

‘Art is not “imagery” that you can control like an IG filter,’ one Instagram user told Ms Edwards.

The finished product: Ms Ferrier sold the painting for $400 via her Instagram story following the competition

The finished product: Ms Ferrier sold the painting for $400 via her Instagram story following the competition

The finished product: Ms Ferrier sold the painting for $400 via her Instagram story following the competition 

‘The painting was fine!’ another said, with a third offering to whip up an artwork: ‘I won’t make you look haggard’.

Sydney Morning Herald art critic John McDonald told Daily Mail Australia he only had a few criticisms of the painting.

Mr McDonald said he felt it looked ‘stiff’ – as it was partially based off a photo – and observed it was only painted in black and white. 

But he also noted Edwards wasn’t without blame.  

‘Every second portrait I think that’s done, the subject of a portrait doesn’t like it or thinks it makes them look too old or too ugly. 

‘If she didn’t want a portrait out there she didn’t approve of she should have carefully vetted the artist.’   

This post first appeared on dailymail.co.uk

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