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BP’s prized dividend faces chop after analysts forecast £5.2bn loss

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bps prized dividend faces chop after analysts forecast 5 2bn loss

BP is being widely tipped to slash its £6.7billion dividend this week.

The FTSE 100-listed oil giant, which is run by Bernard Looney, is scheduled to unveil half-year figures on Tuesday.

City analysts said BP could cut or shelve its payout alongside the figures, which have been forecast to show a $6.8billion (£5.2billion) loss in the second quarter of this year.

City analysts said BP could cut or shelve its payout alongside its half year figures on Tuesday

City analysts said BP could cut or shelve its payout alongside its half year figures on Tuesday

City analysts said BP could cut or shelve its payout alongside its half year figures on Tuesday

Colin Smith, an analyst at Panmure Gordon, said: ‘We now expect BP to cut its dividend… with the second quarter results.’

Analysts at Quest, the cash flow specialist division of Canaccord Genuity, have also placed BP on its ‘dividend at risk’ list.

BP generates the largest dividend payments amongst the FTSE 100 blue chip stocks. Both private investors and big City pension funds and institutions would be upset by the cut.

Small shareholders in particular rely on companies such as BP for income in retirement – especially as bank savings accounts now generate almost zero returns.

The potential reduction of BP’s dividend comes after Royal Dutch Shell cut its payout for the first time since the Second World War.

Shell’s dividend was slashed by 66 per cent – from $15billion last year to $5billion this year. The move came after the oil price crashed following a massive row between Saudi Arabia and Russia.

At one point in April, the oil price in the US fell below zero for the first time in history.

Ben van Beurden, Shell’s chief executive, said the ‘monumental’ decision to reset the company’s dividend earlier this year was difficult but necessary to preserve the financial resilience of the company against the crisis of ‘uncertainty’.

BP, though, opted not to cut its dividend, which at the time surprised many City analysts and investors.

Analysts expect BP will next week unveil a $6.8billion loss for the second quarter. During the same period last year, it generated a $2.8billion profit.

Experts also expect BP to reveal that it will take between $13billion and $17.5billion of non-cash charges following financial blows and exploration write-offs. The latter could total between $8billion and $10billion.

Aside from BP, other FTSE 100 dividends could be at risk this week. Diageo, the Johnny Walker to Smirnoff drinks giant, is also scheduled to announce full-year results which may include a cut in its shareholder payout.

Royal Dutch Shell cut its payout for the first time since the Second World War

Royal Dutch Shell cut its payout for the first time since the Second World War

Royal Dutch Shell cut its payout for the first time since the Second World War

The company will come under pressure to reduce the dividend after the closure of pubs and hospitality venues for months due to lockdown hammered its sales. Last year, Diageo handed shareholders £1.6billion in dividends.

The total amount of dividends paid out by British firms is expected to halve this year as companies look to preserve cash.

Some of the most reliable dividend payers including BT and HSBC have slashed their payouts.

Research by investment firm Octopus Investments found many income-focused fund managers have already removed BP from their portfolios over fears for the dividend. The proportion of equity income funds that include BP dived from 61 per cent in January to 43 per cent by the end of May. 

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New short-term best buy fixed-rate savings deals and cash Isas

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new short term best buy fixed rate savings deals and cash isas

More green shoots have appeared in the savings market as the recent revival in fixed-term savings rates has continued over the last week.

Challenger banks have continued to increase their rates on short-term fixed-rate deals while best buy tax-free Isas have also been launched.

Experts said the presence of Treasury-backed National Savings & Investments at the top of the best buy savings tables was driving the revival, with banks forced to increase rates to attract savers away from NS&I, which has hoovered up billions of pounds over the last few months.

There have been signs of slight green shoots in the savings market in recent weeks, with challenger banks increasing the rates they pay on fixed-rate bonds and Isas

There have been signs of slight green shoots in the savings market in recent weeks, with challenger banks increasing the rates they pay on fixed-rate bonds and Isas

There have been signs of slight green shoots in the savings market in recent weeks, with challenger banks increasing the rates they pay on fixed-rate bonds and Isas

But savers must move fast if they spot an attractive deal, with savings rates having hit record lows this year and the market still fragile due to the impact of the coronavirus on the economy and bank lending.

The best rates usually come from smaller banks and may not be around for long if large numbers of savers deposit their cash with them.

Over the last week several have increased the rates they pay on one and two-year fixed-rate bonds.

Secure Trust Bank launched a one-year bond paying 0.95 per cent on £1,000 or more on Thursday, and then upped its rate to 1.16 per cent just two days later.

This is the second-best rate available on the market, after the 1.2 per cent offered by Sharia bank QIB UK, available through savings platform Raisin. Challenger bank Oaknorth increased the rate on its one-year bond from 0.74 per cent to 1.11 per cent on Monday, edging out United Trust Bank paying 1.1 per cent.

And Charter Savings Bank increased the rate it pays on its bonds, which can be opened with £5,000, with its one-year bond paying 1.05 per cent and its two-year 1.16 per cent, the fifth and fourth-best rates available on the market, respectively.

These bonds can all be opened online, while Charter Savings Bank also accepts postal applications.

While there seems very little reason for savers to fix for longer than 24 months – with longer fixes paying no better rates than shorter deals – the recent rise in short-term fixed rates is a rare bit of good news for savers in what has otherwise been a miserable year.

‘National Savings & Investments propping up the market means some of the banks which need funding are having to break out, which forces others to follow’, James Blower, founder of The Savings Guru, said.

‘Those who need it are finding they can’t raise any serious volume being priced below NS&I so are having to pay up now.’

And although rates on fixed cash Isas continue to lag regular accounts, tax-free savers have not been left out of the recent rates revival.

Coventry Building Society launched a best buy 16-month fixed-rate Isa paying 0.77 per cent, and two and three-year Isas paying 0.85 per cent and 0.9 per cent, which require customers to fix their rate until November 2022 and 2023, respectively.

All three Isas can be opened with £1 online, by phone or by post, and accept previous years’ Isa transfers.

The moves came just a day after Charter Savings Bank upped the rate on its own two-year fixed-rate Isa, from 0.85 per cent to 0.92 per cent, the best rate in our tables. It also cut its one-year rate from 0.76 per cent to 0.71 per cent, but this is still enough to leave it in second place.

Both Isas, plus its best buy three-year fixed-rate paying 0.95 per cent, can be opened with £5,000 online, accept previous years’ transfers and savers can choose to have interest paid monthly.

However, savers should be slightly warier of fixing their Isa for longer than a year because they can earn up to 0.95 per cent interest on easy-access accounts, although many may wish to hedge against easy-access Isa rates falling further.

The top tax-free Isa is offered by Skipton Building Society and pays 0.95 per cent for six months, at which point the rate falls to 0.45 per cent. Savers can open the account online and it accepts transfers.

After Skipton, the best rate is offered by NS&I and Cynergy Bank, both of which pay 0.9 per cent, although NS&I’s Isa does not accept transfers. Both can be applied for online, while NS&I’s can also be applied for by phone, although the bank recommends savers use its website wherever possible.

But despite this, the average closed easy-access Isa pays a higher rate than the average Isa available to savers on the market, meaning savers may actually be better off sticking with their current Isa provider at the moment.

Up to £20,000 can be saved tax-free each year in an Isa.

Moneyfacts’ Rachel Springall said: ‘It is vital that savers act quickly to take advantage of the top rate deals and also to switch if they find they are earning a poor return, especially if they have their cash in an easy access account with a high street bank.

‘The next 12 months look uncertain for the savings market and any positive changes now could be fleeting. Consumers would be wise to remain vigilant and consider the more unfamiliar challenger banks if they hope to secure a lucrative return on their cash during this time.’


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How these small businesses have bounced back thanks to Britain’s bike boom

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how these small businesses have bounced back thanks to britains bike boom

While many small businesses continue to suffer at the hands of the coronavirus pandemic, those in the cycling industry have never been busier. 

A fear of catching the virus on public transport has seen a big rise in the number of people cycling, while sales of new bikes have exploded. 

Meanwhile, much quieter roads and good weather at the start of lockdown, got many people out on bikes old and new to enjoy their daily dose of exercise and fresh air. 

Recently published data from the Department for Transport revealed cycling levels rose by up to 300 per cent on some days over the lockdown period.

A fear of catching the virus on public transport has seen an increase in people using bikes

A fear of catching the virus on public transport has seen an increase in people using bikes

A fear of catching the virus on public transport has seen an increase in people using bikes

And with public transport use still discouraged where possible and the UK Government’s £2billion plan to make roads more cyclist-and pedestrian-friendly, the trend is only expected to continue.      

This has been great news for bike shops, who have reported brisk business in terms of sales, maintenance and repairs, making them some of the small businesses that have thrived in lockdown. 

But it’s not just traditional bike shops who have benefitted from the uptick in the cycling economy, so too have some accessory makers and electric bike producers. 

Catherine Ellis is co-founder of Hill & Ellis, which designs and produces ‘stylish and functional’ bags for bikes. She launched the business in 2013 and has since enjoyed an annual turnover of £70,000.  

‘It was the classic gap in the market story. I was a regular cyclist – cycling to work every day and regularly going into meetings,’ she said.

‘There was nothing on the market that worked on the bike and looked good on the arm. Everything was black PVC and ugly, and to add insult to injury they were uncomfortable to carry off the bike.’ 

Catherine Ellis is co-founder of Hill & Ellis

Catherine Ellis is co-founder of Hill & Ellis

Catherine Ellis is co-founder of Hill & Ellis

Demand for her cycling accessories dropped when the UK went into lockdown earlier this year, though luckily the brand is online-only and didn’t suffer from high overhead costs. Nevertheless, profits took a hit in the first few weeks.  

Then things started to pick back up, says Ellis. The number of cyclists started to increase among key workers and she decided to offer a 50 per cent discount to NHS workers.

After just five weeks, demand shot back up again, and to more than usual. 

Ellis added: ‘Bike shops had stayed open right from the beginning of lockdown to provide maintenance services and they had seen an upsurge in sales as more and more people turned to their bikes. 

‘So they started investing in more stock, which included our products. Our wholesale orders are up by double what they were this time last year.’

Similarly, electronic bike manufacturers Ampler Bikes, based in London, saw growth slow down when the pandemic hit but was able to adjust quickly thanks to its business model.

Ampler Bikes designs and manufactures electronic bikes and sells its products across Europe

Ampler Bikes designs and manufactures electronic bikes and sells its products across Europe

Ampler Bikes designs and manufactures electronic bikes and sells its products across Europe

Chief executive Ardo Kaurit, who founded the company alongside friends Hannes Laar and Rait Udumäe, said the business was able to survive due to its international footing.

‘Ampler was founded in Tallinn, Estonia in 2016 and we opened our first flagship store in Berlin in 2018,’ he said.

‘We built and moved into a new assembly factory in November 2019, which increased our production rate and enabled us to have all bikes fully stocked not long before the pandemic.

‘We’ve had an incredibly successful year so far, with year-over-year sales increasing 88 per cent over the first five months of 2020. This year, we are on track to double our 2019 revenues of €5.7million (£5.12million).’

Rising to the challenge

Kaurit said some of Ampler’s 70-strong workforce did find their daily jobs had changed or disappeared but that they were immediately put into new positions and nobody was let go or furloughed.

Its events team took the biggest hit with around 40 events cancelled this season, while its Berlin showroom had to close temporarily. However, Ampler found new ways to work digitally, such as launching its ‘digital test ride’ concept and putting more focus on its social media channels.  

Ellis was also lucky enough to keep her and her staff working throughout the lockdown and did not need to take any grants or loans, though she is considering a bounce back loan. 

She said: ‘It looks attractive as it has low repayment charges and could be the best way to inject some needed cash.

‘This time has allowed me to really consider the company and our product line. We had a few product ranges in the pipeline from January, which did have to be put on hold as manufacturers closed down during lockdown, but we are now working on them.

‘We are also going to add more products to accommodate different cycle styles and are looking into personalisation options to make our products more attractive as gifts.’  

Like Ampler Bikes, Hill & Ellis decided to put a stronger emphasis on its customer service and engagement. 

It offered complimentary gift wrapping and gift cards in a bid to ‘send a bit more love to everyone’ during the difficult period. 

Ellis added: ‘Customers were buying our products as presents or part of “care packages” so now I am working on more options for personalisation for that extra touch.’

L to R: Ardo Kaurit, Hannes Laar and Rait Udumäe co-founded e-bike company Ampler Bikes

L to R: Ardo Kaurit, Hannes Laar and Rait Udumäe co-founded e-bike company Ampler Bikes

L to R: Ardo Kaurit, Hannes Laar and Rait Udumäe co-founded e-bike company Ampler Bikes

The percentage of daily riders has increased from 55% to 91% when switching to an e-bike

The percentage of daily riders has increased from 55% to 91% when switching to an e-bike

The percentage of daily riders has increased from 55% to 91% when switching to an e-bike

A sustainable future

Both businesses are positive about their futures.

The uptake of cycle-to-work schemes in the UK rose a whopping 200 per cent in May, while bicycle and car parts chain Halfords saw sales jump 23 per cent three months ago.  

Kaurit is particularly excited about the future of electronic bikes, as recent research has suggested the percentage of riders who ride daily or weekly has risen from 55 per cent to 91 per cent after switching from a regular bike to an e-bike. 

He said: ‘I believe e-bikes offer an alternative for people who may not have the option of cycling unassisted, for instance the elderly or those with physical disabilities. 

‘So in this respect, e-bikes could give those individuals all the health benefits of cycling without worrying about whether they’ll be able to physically do it.  

‘We believe we are still in the beginning of the electric revolution and even though the market is already big and has grown fast, there is still plenty of room for further growth. With new brands popping up and new cycle paths opened, the sea is rising for everyone.’       

Growth opportunities are not restricted by borders either. In China, Beijing’s bike-share system grew by 150 per cent as early as March, while cycling traffic in Dundee, Scotland, rose by 94 per cent in April. Paris has also subsidised e-bike purchases, reimbursed bike repairs and created more bike parking spaces.

Hill & Ellis is working on its vegan bag range

Hill & Ellis is working on its vegan bag range

Hill & Ellis is working on its vegan bag range

Kaurit said: ‘It is great to see cities and governments encouraging cycling and more and more people starting to look into it as their main means of transport and acknowledging that cycling is great for health, budget and the environment.   

‘We are happy to hear bikes are becoming more popular in the UK, and it is reassuring to hear that the UK government is encouraging cycling and healthier modes of transport by investing in more cycleways and urban cycling routes.’

Ellis added: ‘If some good can come out of the pandemic it is this. As more people enjoy the benefits of cycling, it offers many solutions to problems such as pollution, tube overcrowding, traffic congestion, personal health and it genuinely is really enjoyable.’   

She said the UK Government’s £2billion commitment to investing in cycling infrastructure would increase the attraction of cycling as it becomes, safer, easier and quicker. 

‘Investing in green economies and encouraging green alternatives such as commuting by bike will help us protect the planet and our health for the future,’ she added. ‘Hopefully, this could be one good to come out of this.’   

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My flat has got a leak, is mouldy and the shower doesn’t work. How can I fix this?

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my flat has got a leak is mouldy and the shower doesnt work how can i fix this

I’ve been renting my flat since February 2020. It has an immersion tank which is causing a lot of problems.

The hot tap on my shower barely has any pressure so when I try to get the right temperature it becomes overpowered by the cold water and unfortunately I can’t use it. Instead, I’ve been using my parents house to bathe.

I also had a leak back in June and withheld my rent. After a month, the landlady finally came round and sorted it.

Tenants who have issues with their landlord are not advised to withhold their rent at any time

Tenants who have issues with their landlord are not advised to withhold their rent at any time

Tenants who have issues with their landlord are not advised to withhold their rent at any time

As the shower still isn’t working I have refused to pay my rent this month as well. Not to mention the place is riddled with mould and after two weeks of living here my walls were covered in mould.

What rights do I have? Do I keep withholding my rent until it is sorted?

Grace Gausden, This is Money, replies: Unfortunately you have had quite a lot of bad luck after moving into a new flat in February.

If not being able to shower isn’t bad enough, you have also had to deal with a leak and mould, which can be incredibly bad for your health if left untreated.

As such, you have withheld rent as you found your landlady wasn’t taking any steps. 

However, despite the lag in action, tenants are always advised to keep paying rent as this could lead to a potential court case if left unpaid. 

Landlord disputes are always difficult as you want to keep things civil as possible but also want to ensure that all necessary works are done.

Your landlord is responsible for most major repairs to your home if you rent privately which includes any hot water or heating repairs, such as your shower. 

When contacting your landlady, ensure you send plenty of photos and emails so you have a record of complaints.

Once the landlady is notified, remedial action should be carried out as soon as possible. However, there is currently no set timeline as to when they will need to take action.

Having mould is unpleasant but it can be difficult to know who is responsible to clear it up

Having mould is unpleasant but it can be difficult to know who is responsible to clear it up

Having mould is unpleasant but it can be difficult to know who is responsible to clear it up

You have also said that the flat is ‘riddled’ with mould which could mean it could be unfit for human habitation.

However, with damp, it isn’t always easy to work out if your landlord is responsible for resolving this issue because it can be tricky to find the exact cause of damp without the help of a surveyor, unless it’s obvious, such as a leaking roof.

In most situations they will be but they could also require you to take action such as increase ventilation in the property and ensure you dry wet clothes outside when possible.  

Check your tenancy agreement and speak to your landlord before you make significant steps to tackle the damp. 

If you still think your home’s unsafe, contact the housing department at your local council.

They will do a Housing Health and Safety Rating System assessment and must take action if they think your home has serious health and safety hazards. 

Another option is to seek help from Citizens Advice who will be able to provide more tailored solutions to your problem.  

If all else fails, you can take the issue to court. Hiring a specialist solicitor who regularly deals with landlord and tenancy law will be the best course of action to take. However, this should always be the very last option as it will be costly.  

Tenants should always read through their contract when settling a dispute with their landlord

Tenants should always read through their contract when settling a dispute with their landlord

Tenants should always read through their contract when settling a dispute with their landlord

A spokesperson for the Tenants Voice replies: The most important thing is to advise is that you have no right to withhold your rent under any circumstances.

A landlord’s repairing obligation is a continuing one during the life of a tenancy and will arise at various times, however, it is never correct for a tenant to withhold rent.

If you get to two months rent arrears that is grounds for a mandatory possession.

The landlords obligation in relation to how water is to provide adequate washing and heating facilities. Adequate is a matter of interpretation on a case by case basis.

However, if the shower is the only available washing facility then it ought to be in good working order and the water ought to be capable of being heated sufficiently.

If there is an alternative washing facility such as a bath then the landlord has no obligation to fit a shower. Poor water pressure would not be actionable if there is sufficient flow to get a shower as annoying as that would be. 

In relation to mould, that is a hazard to health under the Homes Health and Safety rating System and should be reported to the Environmental Health officer at the local council.

If the landlord continues to refuse or fail to remedy any disrepair, an action could be taken against them under Sections 11 and 9A of the Landlord and Tenant Act 1985 or Sections 79 to 82 Environmental Protection Act 1990. 

Adam French, Which? Consumer Rights Expert, replies: Damp and mould can be a common problem in rented properties. Depending on the cause and the type of mould it is usually the landlord’s responsibility to fix it, so make sure you report it.

If its the landlord’s responsibility but they don’t take action, and the mould is either causing ill health or making the home unsafe, then gather evidence including a medical letter and report it to the local environmental health department to inspect the home.

If the landlord still refuses to make repairs to ensure the home is safe then the tenant can consider using an alternative dispute resolution or seek court action as a last resort.

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