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How to profit before we ALL start paying for Dishy Rishi’s rescue plan

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how to profit before we all start paying for dishy rishis rescue plan

When is a Budget not a Budget? When it’s a Winter Economic Plan. Rishi Sunak’s final throw of the dice late last month to prevent a jump in unemployment numbers filled some with fear and others with hope. But all agreed it will have a major impact on the shape of the UK economy over the coming months.

The plan indicated a change of tack that will hit some sectors hard. Despite tighter restrictions on hospitality and leisure, the Chancellor will only support ‘viable’ jobs where staff can work at least a third of their usual hours. As Jim Wood-Smith, chief investment officer at Hawksmoor Private Clients, puts it, the message is to ‘man up and get on with it’.

‘Covid has changed the world and the Government will no longer write blank cheques to pretend otherwise,’ he says, calling Sunak’s plan a ‘watershed moment’ and a change ‘for worse and for better’ – depending on which industry you are in.

Boxing clever: Chancellor Rishi Sunak

Boxing clever: Chancellor Rishi Sunak

Boxing clever: Chancellor Rishi Sunak

‘The prognosis for social industries – mainly leisure, hospitality and entertainment – is not appetising,’ he says. ‘The other edge to the sword is that 2021’s prospects are starting to look brighter.’

For investors wanting to navigate what looks like a winter of discontent, understanding the implications of the Chancellor’s new plan will be crucial if they are to arrange their portfolios accordingly.

There’s a big bill coming, but not just yet

Sunak’s winter plan focuses heavily on the Job Support Scheme, which will come in when the furlough scheme ends on October 31. 

Under the replacement, workers who are employed part-time will have their wages topped up by both the Government and the employer. Big firms will have to show that their turnover has fallen by a third and also must not pay dividends to investors while using the scheme.

The tourism and hospitality sectors will continue to benefit from reduced VAT at 5 per cent until the end of next March – and there are further extensions to business loan schemes and a new but lower grant for the self-employed.

Because this was a plan and not a Budget, there was no explanation of how these measures would be paid for. Tom Selby, senior analyst at wealth manager AJ Bell, expects taxes will have to rise, with investors most affected.

‘The hope will be that a rapid economic bounceback driven by improved Covid testing and the development of a vaccine might do some of the legwork. But this is likely to be coupled with hard decisions on taxes and state spending,’ he says. 

‘Various ideas have already been floated, including raising capital gains tax, breaking the state pension triple-lock and doing away with higher-rate tax relief on pension contributions.’

Can Isa and pension allowances survive?

Investment experts suggest savers make the most of tax breaks while they can, as Sunak’s economic stimulus will have to be paid for. The breaks we take for granted to help us to grow our portfolios – not just pension tax relief but generous Isa allowances and capital gains tax allowances – look likely to be victims. 

‘Reductions in public spending and rises in taxation will have consequences,’ warns Jason Hollands at wealth manager Tilney. ‘There is no such thing as a free lunch. If you can, make use of your pension and Isa allowances, as higher taxes are almost certainly coming.’

He is echoed by Moira O’Neill at wealth manager Interactive Investor. She says: ‘At some point, we’re all going to have to start paying for Covid. Its cost to the Government is second only to the cost of rebuilding the country after World War II. 

‘Since tax rises seem a given, the immediate winners of the ‘no-Budget’ this autumn are all UK taxpayers. So now is the time to make as much use of your tax-free allowances as you can – while they are still around.’

Anyone aged 16 or over has a £20,000-a-year Isa allowance, while all bar the highest earners can claim tax relief on pension contributions of up to 100 per cent of their earnings, capped at £40,000 a year. There are also generous rules allowing you to carry over unused allowances from previous years.

Even payments into a child’s pension qualify for tax relief. So if you pay the maximum of £2,880 a year, £3,600 is invested in their future.

Don’t stop investing, but do so wisely

O’Neill recommends regular investing to counter volatility – caused, for instance, by a sharp pick-up in Covid cases, lack of progress on vaccines or Brexit hiccups. 

She says: ‘Nervous investors should invest on a regular basis because it smooths out some of the highs and lows in the price of shares.’ O’Neill believes multi-asset funds are a good choice. This is because such funds have exposure to assets other than equities – bonds, for example.

UK equity markets have underperformed the rest of the world by 24 per cent this year

UK equity markets have underperformed the rest of the world by 24 per cent this year

UK equity markets have underperformed the rest of the world by 24 per cent this year

She likes the low-cost Vanguard LifeStrategy 20 per cent, 60 per cent and 80 per cent equity funds, which have ongoing annual charges of 0.22 per cent. The 20, 60 and 80 percentages refer to the amount of shares in the fund, with the rest made up of less volatile assets such as corporate bonds. So the 80 per cent fund is the most volatile.

In the short term, despite Sunak’s initiatives, many UK businesses look like they’ll face a harsh winter. Those in hospitality, which were buoyed by Eat Out to Help Out, will suffer from the 10 o’clock curfew. With the uncertainty of Brexit hanging as well, there will be some bleak months ahead.

UK equity markets have underperformed the rest of the world by 24 per cent this year, according to Rupert Thompson, chief investment officer at the wealth manager Kingswood. He says: ‘They look set for a choppy few weeks and months. Further out, we remain more positive – not least because the focus should hopefully switch from the rollout of new lockdowns to the rollout of a vaccine.’

Darius McDermott, managing director at Chelsea Financial Services, believes the Chancellor may have more tricks up his sleeve if things get worse. He says: ‘He’s likely to keep some of his powder dry should the situation deteriorate over the winter. Expect further announcements.’

Chelsea's McDermott suggests UK smaller company funds could be a good place for investors to look for long-term value

Chelsea's McDermott suggests UK smaller company funds could be a good place for investors to look for long-term value

Chelsea’s McDermott suggests UK smaller company funds could be a good place for investors to look for long-term value

Smaller firms can mean bigger returns

Despite Sunak’s best efforts, even British investors are shunning UK stocks. According to the Investment Association, the trade body for investment managers, the proportion of British investors’ assets in UK equity funds fell to 14 per cent at the end of June. It stood at 39 per cent in 2005.

The picture may look bleak, with restrictions likely to last another six months and Brexit uncertainty. That said, many have money to spend, stored up from a lockdown in which a lot of households added to their savings. The most recent jobs data was better than expected, too, meaning the economy might be more resilient than we think.

Chelsea’s McDermott suggests UK smaller company funds could be a good place for investors to look for long-term value. He suggests Amati UK Smaller Companies, Tellworth UK Smaller Companies and Marlborough Special Situations.

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33941172 8801661 image a 97 1601741334258

The Amati fund has 2 per cent of its holdings in Oxford Biomedica, which is contracted to produce the AstraZeneca-Oxford University Covid vaccine if it is successful. The fund has generated a return of 6.7 per cent over the past year and 19.8 per cent over three years.

Tellworth’s top holding is Codemasters, a racing game developer that should do well from a stay-at-home winter. The fund, which is too young to have a three-year track record, is up 15 per cent in the past six months, though it generated a one-year loss of 7 per cent.

As we head into a difficult winter, Sunak’s measures won’t be enough to save every company, and sentiment is likely to remain subdued for some time. However, a vaccine announcement could change the game very quickly, and even out-of-favour sectors could be boosted.

His new focus on viable jobs will put the UK in a better position to recover after restrictions are eased. If the UK economy really does ‘man up and get on with it’, as Wood-Smith suggests, those prepared to invest now could do their investments some long-term good.

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Is it the end of free banking in Britain? This is Money podcast

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is it the end of free banking in britain this is money podcast

Murmurs from HSBC HQ this week warned that an overhaul of its business model could leave customers paying a monthly fee for their current accounts.

This week, Simon Lambert, Lee Boyce and Georgie Frost ask whether this is really a possibility, if banking actually is free anyway and what happens next.

We also look at who is winning the battle of current account switchers and whether people are just too loyal to their bank.

This weekend marks the end of the furlough scheme, replaced by something new – while other financial support is also changing, including free overdrafts and mortgage payment holidays.

What impact did the second wave fear and upcoming US election have on the stock market this week?

35049904 8898255 image a 30 1604077937680

35049904 8898255 image a 30 1604077937680

Bitcoin has seen a surge in price this week, what’s behind its rise to the highest level since the crazy end of 2017?

And boilers – one reader has been told that their 28 year model is too ancient to service. Is this a fair call?

How to listen to the This is Money podcast 

We publish our podcast every Friday to the player on This is Money, above, and on Apple Podcasts (iTunes) and on the podcast platforms Audioboom and Acast, both of which allow you to listen on desktop, mobile, or download an app. We also now publish to Spotify.

To download the Apple Podcasts app if you do not already have it, go to the App store. Or go to either the Apple App store or the Google Play store on Android to download the Acast, AudioBoom or Spotify app. 

Press play to listen to this week’s full episode on the player above, or listen (and please subscribe and review us if you like the podcast) at Apple Podcasts, Acast, Audioboom and Spotify or visit our This is Money Podcast page.   

This post first appeared on dailymail.co.uk

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SMALL CAP MOVERS: AIM tops full-year 2019 fundraisings in nine months

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small cap movers aim tops full year 2019 fundraisings in nine months

The junior market has enjoyed a formidable year for fundraisings despite the pandemic weighing on stocks worldwide.

Some £4billion funds have been raised in the nine months to September, which tops the £3.9billion raised in the whole of 2019, according to broker Allenby Capital.

Most of these funds have been raised for existing listed companies, though there has been 15 initial public offers so far.

Just this week lab services specialist SourceBio International started trading after raising £35million to scale up Covid-19 testing capacity as well as paying off shareholder and bank loans.

Lab services specialist SourceBio International started trading after raising £35million to scale up Covid-19 testing capacity as well as paying off shareholder and bank loans

Lab services specialist SourceBio International started trading after raising £35million to scale up Covid-19 testing capacity as well as paying off shareholder and bank loans

Lab services specialist SourceBio International started trading after raising £35million to scale up Covid-19 testing capacity as well as paying off shareholder and bank loans

Verici Dx, a developer of advanced clinical diagnostics for organ transplant, will make its debut next week though it has already completed a £14.5million placing.

In terms of secondary fundraisings, many companies tapped the market to survive major downturns in trading during lockdown, such as airline Jet2, but investors were also eager to back success stories.

The pharma sector was the star of the show, raising £679million or 18 per cent of the total in 2020 so far to support both Covid-19 and existing projects.

The top three largest share issues were conducted by Hutchison China Meditech, Renalytix AI and Tiziana Life Sciences.

The market was also interested in companies that benefitted from the online shopping surge, such as retailers Asos and Boohoo and warehouse operators Urban Logistics REIT and Warehouse REIT.

This week, Angle raised a further £19.6million to propel its breakthrough liquid biopsy into the commercial phase, while Advanced Oncotherapy tapped the market for £7.7million to support its next-generation proton beam therapy technology.

Turning to the wider market, the AIM-All Share slipped 3 per cent over the week to 946, but still outperformed the FTSE 100, which dropped 5 per cent to 5,574.

Among the risers, Chariot Oil & Gas soared 36 per cent to 6p after financial institutions expressed interest in financing the development of its offshore Moroccan gas assets.

Meanwhile, model train maker Hornby steamed 20 per cent higher to 43p after flagging that sales continue to be ahead of last year while it looks forward to the key Christmas period.

Sensyne Health jumped 17 per cent to 123p following an extension of its relationship with Microsoft to collaborate on clinical artificial intelligence and health-related cloud technologies. 

The enhanced tie-up is set to deliver the latest ‘cloud-first’ healthcare systems and cutting-edge predictive machine learning algorithms. The junior biotech also signed a research agreement with Milton Keynes University Hospital NHS Foundation Trust.

Elsewhere, language courses provider Malvern International shot up 12 per cent to 0.1p after its half-year report allayed investors’ fears about its survival prospects, since it now has enough funds to continue operating.

Model train maker Hornby steamed 20 per cent higher to 43p after flagging that sales continue to be ahead of last year while it looks forward to the key Christmas period

Model train maker Hornby steamed 20 per cent higher to 43p after flagging that sales continue to be ahead of last year while it looks forward to the key Christmas period

Model train maker Hornby steamed 20 per cent higher to 43p after flagging that sales continue to be ahead of last year while it looks forward to the key Christmas period

Among the fallers, Omega Diagnostics lost 24 per cent to 74p after revealing its food intolerance business had been hit by the effects of the pandemic. Traders took the opportunity to bank some profits after the shares rose from around 10p at the beginning of April on expectations of the diagnostics company making a lot of money from the fight against the coronavirus.

In the retail space, clothing chain QUIZ shed 19 per cent to 6p after admitting increased sales in its casual ranges are not making up for losses in occasionwear revenues, leading to a 73 per cent slump in half-year revenue to £17million.

Completing the outfit, Shoe Zone tripped 13 per cent to 39p after ruling out dividends for five years and warning the reintroduction of business rates might bring to the closure of a fifth of its stores.

In the oil sector, Lekoil tumbled 18 per cent to 1p after its interim loss widened 34 per cent to $7.9million, while the cash balance dropped to $2.9million at the end of September from $4.6million in June.

Finally, escape room operator Escape Hunt fell 15 per cent to 9p after announcing the opening of its next owner-operated site in Basingstoke, perhaps not a great timing considering the rising infections in the UK.

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Electrified cars outsold diesels in Europe for the first time last month

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electrified cars outsold diesels in europe for the first time last month

It’s official, electrified cars are now more popular than diesels in Europe.

That’s according to the latest data from industry analysts Jato Dynamics, which today reported that registrations of battery electric, plug-in hybrid and conventional hybrid cars overtook diesel for the first time on record in September.

One in four new models bought in 27 European nations were alternative-fuelled vehicles, though petrol remains well ahead with almost half the market share of registrations last month.

Changing of the guard: Electrified vehicles - which includes battery-electric, plug-in hybrid and conventional hybrid cars - outsold diesel in September

Changing of the guard: Electrified vehicles - which includes battery-electric, plug-in hybrid and conventional hybrid cars - outsold diesel in September

Changing of the guard: Electrified vehicles – which includes battery-electric, plug-in hybrid and conventional hybrid cars – outsold diesel in September

The September report said there had been ‘clear signs that Europe is all set for an electric revolution’, with the caveat: ‘In fact, this revolution has already started.’   

It marks the first time in the modern era that alternative-fuelled vehicles have outsold one of the two internal combustion engine types but also signifies the substantial fall from grace for oil-burning engines.

Just five years ago, around the time the Dieselgate scandal hit headlines, diesel cars were the dominant force in Europe. 

Overall, registrations climbed by 1.2 per cent year-on-year in September, with 1.3 million passenger cars bought across nations.

That’s despite petrol and diesel suffering double-digit drops compared to September 2019.

In September, diesel made up just 24.8 per cent of vehicles registered on the continent, while petrol accounted for 47 per cent. 

Industry analysts said European passenger vehicle registrations in September were a clear sign that the 'electric revolution has already started'

Industry analysts said European passenger vehicle registrations in September were a clear sign that the 'electric revolution has already started'

Industry analysts said European passenger vehicle registrations in September were a clear sign that the ‘electric revolution has already started’

In contrast, electric vehicle demand spiked by 139 per cent to a records 327,800 units – the first time that EVs have broken the 300,000 units monthly mark, and only the second time that they have counted for more than 20 per cent of registrations. 

Commenting on the change of guard for fuel types, Felipe Munoz, global analyst at Jato Dynamics said: ‘The shift from ICEs to EVs is finally taking place. 

‘Although this is largely down to government policies and incentives, consumers are also now ready to adopt these new technologies.’

In the UK, demand for BEVs and PHEVs is surging, while diesel continues to decline. In September alone, some 60,647 pure electric and hybrid cars were purchased compared to just 46,996 diesels

In the UK, demand for BEVs and PHEVs is surging, while diesel continues to decline. In September alone, some 60,647 pure electric and hybrid cars were purchased compared to just 46,996 diesels

In the UK, demand for BEVs and PHEVs is surging, while diesel continues to decline. In September alone, some 60,647 pure electric and hybrid cars were purchased compared to just 46,996 diesels

The report reflects a similar shift already taking place in the UK market.

So far this year, battery electric vehicle demand is up a massive 165 per cent, while plug-in hybrid sales are ahead by more than 80 per cent.

In September alone – which is traditionally a big month for car retailers with the arrival of a new registration number and deals to incentivise sales of models with the fresh plates – some 60,647 pure electric and hybrid cars (both plug-in and conventional) were purchased.

That compared to just 46,996 diesels.

It means alternative-fuelled vehicles (not including ‘mild hybrids’) had a market share of 18.5 per cent, overtaking oil burners which accounted for just 14.3 per cent of all new cars bought last month.

The launch of the new ID.3 has made VW the brand with the second highest electrified vehicle registrations in Europe, ironically after its Dieselgate scandal sparked the decline in diesel demand in 2015

The launch of the new ID.3 has made VW the brand with the second highest electrified vehicle registrations in Europe, ironically after its Dieselgate scandal sparked the decline in diesel demand in 2015

The launch of the new ID.3 has made VW the brand with the second highest electrified vehicle registrations in Europe, ironically after its Dieselgate scandal sparked the decline in diesel demand in 2015

A year ago, electrified cars made up just 11% of vehicle registrations. Now they account for one in four

A year ago, electrified cars made up just 11% of vehicle registrations. Now they account for one in four

A year ago, electrified cars made up just 11% of vehicle registrations. Now they account for one in four

The car brands taking advantage of the electric switch

While Dieselgate is the moment earmarked as the beginning of the downfall for diesel, Jato Dynamics said Volkswagen has ‘overcome the scandal to become a new protagonist in this chapter of vehicle electrification’. 

Last month, the German car maker registered 40,300 electrified vehicles in Europe, with the all-new ID.3 racking up 7,897 sales last month to become the third most-bought battery electric car in Europe.

Only the Tesla Model 3 with 15,702 registrations (which made it the most-bought of all electrified cars last month) and Renault Zoe (11,023) outsold the ID.3 hatchback.

In fact, VW was the second largest electrified vehicle seller in September behind only Toyota, which continued its dominance from within the hybrid segment.

The Tesla Model 3 is the most-bought battery electric vehicle in Europe. That has also been the case in the UK during 2020

The Tesla Model 3 is the most-bought battery electric vehicle in Europe. That has also been the case in the UK during 2020

The Tesla Model 3 is the most-bought battery electric vehicle in Europe. That has also been the case in the UK during 2020

35005350 8893829 image a 74 1603987507413

35005350 8893829 image a 74 1603987507413

‘Like with its SUVs, Volkswagen Group arrived late to the EV boom, but its competitive products are catching up quickly, and it is now becoming a leader’ Munoz said.  

SUVs continue to top the sales charts, grabbing 41.3 per cent of the market, with the Renault Captur, Peugeot 2008 and Ford Puma most in demand. 

Despite the dominance of utility vehicles, the most registered overall car in Europe was the VW Golf with 28,731 bought last month. It was closely followed by the Vauxhall Corsa (26,269).

The VW Golf was the best-selling car in Europe in September, with over 28,700 registered

The VW Golf was the best-selling car in Europe in September, with over 28,700 registered

The VW Golf was the best-selling car in Europe in September, with over 28,700 registered

SAVE MONEY ON MOTORING

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