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Covid-19 cases could be missed because temperatures are more common in the evening than the morning

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covid 19 cases could be missed because temperatures are more common in the evening than the morning

Covid-19 cases could be missed if people are screened for a fever in the morning, scientists have warned.  

US experts found flu patients were 44 per cent less likely to have a temperature in the early hours of the day, compared with the afternoon to evening.

Researchers analysed a decade’s worth of data from almost 300,000 people who visited emergency departments across the US. 

They concluded that morning checks could result in up to half of people who have a fever being missed.

And they warned this would apply to other infectious diseases like Covid-19, even though the study only looked at patients with a fever from flu. 

A fever is one of the tell-tale symptoms of Covid-19. If it is not spotted, it could lead to someone going undiagnosed and potentially spreading the virus. 

Hospitals regularly take patients’ temperatures, and now screening is set to become commonplace in work places, schools and airports.

The study researchers urged for a twice-a-day approach, and for checks both before and after a long-haul flight. 

Researchers looked at patients representative of the US (right) and at one Boston hospital (left). Both showed that patients' temperatures were lowest in the morning and highest in the evening, either during a flu outbreak or at a regular time of year

Researchers looked at patients representative of the US (right) and at one Boston hospital (left). Both showed that patients' temperatures were lowest in the morning and highest in the evening, either during a flu outbreak or at a regular time of year

Researchers looked at patients representative of the US (right) and at one Boston hospital (left). Both showed that patients’ temperatures were lowest in the morning and highest in the evening, either during a flu outbreak or at a regular time of year

The authors of the study, from various parts of the US, said: ‘The results suggest that morning temperature measurements could miss many febrile disease cases.’

They added it ‘raises concerns’ because workplace and school fever screens often occur during mornings.

The team wrote: ‘Temperature screening is usually recommended once daily at morning arrival to workplaces and schools, yet our results suggest the morning could be the worst time. 

HOW DO COVID-19 TEMPERATURE CHECKS WORK? 

Putting a thermometer into an armpit, mouth, ear or other body cavity is known to be the most accurate way to measure temperature. 

It gives a reading for the body’s core temperature, which may rise in order to help fight illness. A high temperature is regarded as anything within the range of 38°C and 41°C.

Temperature scanners — including thermal imaging and temperature ‘guns’ pointed at the forehead — do not measure the body’s core temperature. 

Instead, they measure skin temperature which, although tends to correlate with spikes in core body temperature, can vary depending on the environment and activity.

The devices can only make an estimation of core body temperature by measuring heat radiating from the skin using infrared technology. 

Therefore the devices are not as accurate as a medical device which takes a patient’s’ temperature. 

Derek Hill, a professor of medical imaging science from University College London, told MailOnline: ‘They certainly shouldn’t be used to say if someone has a fever. But they might be useful for detecting people who need a real temperature check.’ 

If a person is flagged as potentially having a high temperature, they may be denied entry to a venue. But this would depend on the policy of each place.

They are controversial because a temperature above the normal range does not necessarily mean someone has the coronavirus – they may be unwell with something else. And people have variations in their temperature daily and women see fluctuations through their menstrual cycle.

They can also miss Covid-19 patients who do not have the symptom of a high temperature, or not symptoms at all. 

The World Health Organization says thermal camera says temperature screening ‘may not be very effective’ as a singular tool for detecting Covid-19. 

While the medicine regulator in the UK recently stressed that temperature screening products cannot be used to diagnose Covid-19 because there is not evidence to support their use — and reminded suppliers of they should not make such claims. 

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‘Our results raise concerns that morning measurements could miss many (perhaps even half) of the individuals with fevers detectable during evenings, potentially allowing them to go to work, attend school, and travel.’

The researchers recommend that temperatures are taken both in the morning and then later in the day.

‘Similarly, departure and arrival screens might both be worthwhile for long flights’, the researchers said.

But the team admitted that their findings are only applicable to the use of traditional thermometers, and not screening devices which have lower accuracy.

Temperature screening devices include thermal imaging cameras in airports and thermal ‘guns’ pointed at the head to give a reading.

These tools are not designed to measure the body’s core temperature. They can only give a guess based on the temperature of the skin.

The research, which was posted as a pre-print on the site MedRxiv, was a ‘retrospective design’, meaning it looked back on data for patients in the past.

Researchers led by Charles Harding, an independent statistical analyst from Seattle, looked at 295,406 American patients.

Some 202,181 came from a nationally representative study of US emergency department visits between December 2002 to December 2010.

The other 93,225 came from a Boston adult emergency department between September 2009 to March 2012.

Therefore the data covers several years (2002 to 2012) in which there were flu outbreaks, including the 2009 swine flu epidemic.

In every outbreak, temperatures – classed as above 38°C (100.4°F) – were less common in the morning. But it is not clear why.  

In the Boston study, fevers were the least common at around 8am, before rising during the early afternoon and peaking at around 10pm. 

The pattern was similar in the national cohort, but not as drastic, meaning it was more likely patients were spotted in the morning than in the Boston group.  

The researchers explained that the body’s temperature naturally drops during the mornings due to the circadian rhythm.  

A circadian rhythm – the body’s internal clock – helps to regulate the body over the day.    

Flu and Covid-19 are caused by different viruses – influenza or SARS-CoV-2, but are both contagious, respiratory illnesses with similar symptoms.

The NHS lists a high temperature as the main symptom of Covid-19 and the CDC lists a fever. 

While some Covid-19 patients may never get a fever, instead suffering with other symptoms such as a cough or loss of taste and smell, others may only have a fever.       

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Dr Fauci  says bars and restaurants should stay closed

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dr fauci says bars and restaurants should stay closed

Dr Anthony Fauci is warning that bars and restaurants should not reopen after Centers for Disease Control and Prevention research showed that people who recently dined out or went to bars are two-times more likely to test positive for coronavirus

‘When you have restaurants, indoors, in a situation where you have a high degree of infection in the community, you’re not wearing masks, that’s a problem,’ Dr Fauci said in an MSNBC interview. 

‘Bars are a really important place of spreading infection, there’s not doubt about that.’     

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) research published last week showed that people who had recently dined out were nearly twice as likely to test positive for coronavirus compared to those who had not been to restaurants.    

Despite the CDC report, New York City restaurants will be allowed to open indoor dining at 25 percent their capacity on September 30, and bars in Florida opened at 50 percent capacity on Monday. 

Top US infectious disease expert Dr Anthony Fauci  said that restaurants and  bars clearly present high-risk  environments for coronavirus infection in a Thursday night  interviiew

Top US infectious disease expert Dr Anthony Fauci  said that restaurants and  bars clearly present high-risk  environments for coronavirus infection in a Thursday night  interviiew

Top US infectious disease expert Dr Anthony Fauci  said that restaurants and  bars clearly present high-risk  environments for coronavirus infection in a Thursday night  interviiew

People who tested positive for coronavirus were about twice as likely to have recently visited restaurants, compared to people who tested negative (third from left), CDC data reveals

People who tested positive for coronavirus were about twice as likely to have recently visited restaurants, compared to people who tested negative (third from left), CDC data reveals

People who tested positive for coronavirus were about twice as likely to have recently visited restaurants, compared to people who tested negative (third from left), CDC data reveals

Struggling food and beverage businesses in the hard-hit areas are thrilled, but the CDC’s data suggests that going to restaurants is linked to higher odds of catching coronavirus than riding the bus, going to offices or to the gym.

Dr Fauci said he ‘totally agreed’ with White House coronavirus task force coordinator Dr Deborah Birx’s July recommendation that bars and restaurants stay closed in states like Kentucky that were struggling to get their outbreaks under control.  

Barring indoor dining and drinking  ‘becomes particularly important if you happen to be in an area where there’s a high degree of community spread, so those are things  that are crystal clear,’ Dr Fauci said. 

Restaurants and bars are now at least partially open in every state, even as states in  the South and Midwest report alarming increases in coronavirus cases. 

Bars in particular emerged as hotspots for infection in states like Arizona and Florida over the summer, and recent federal data drew a clear link between food and beverage establishments and COVID-19 cases.  

The CDC collected data on 314 Americans who got tested for coronavirus. 

Participants were asked about where they had spent their time in the past two weeks and with whom they had been in contact. 

Of the entire group 154 people had tested positive and 160 people tested negative. 

There was little difference in the percentage of people who tested positive or negative and had recently been to salons, offices, gyms or to stores to shop. 

A new CDC report found that people are nearly  twice as likely to test positive for coronavirus if they have eaten at a restaurant in the past two weeks. It comes as New York City allows dining in at 25% capacity starting September 30 and Florida reopens bars at 50% capacity Monday (file)

A new CDC report found that people are nearly  twice as likely to test positive for coronavirus if they have eaten at a restaurant in the past two weeks. It comes as New York City allows dining in at 25% capacity starting September 30 and Florida reopens bars at 50% capacity Monday (file)

A new CDC report found that people are nearly  twice as likely to test positive for coronavirus if they have eaten at a restaurant in the past two weeks. It comes as New York City allows dining in at 25% capacity starting September 30 and Florida reopens bars at 50% capacity Monday (file)

Positive and negative test results were also about equally common among people who lived with a few people, compared to those who shared their homes with 10 or more others. 

Unsurprisingly, those who had had close contact with someone they knew had COVID-19 were about three times as likely to test positive as negative. 

And the vast majority of those close contacts were family members, who were more likely than friends or colleagues to share a home with the covid-positive study participant. 

Aside from close contacts, going to eating or drinking establishments was the strongest predictor of catching coronavirus. 

Positive tests were ‘approximately twice as likely to have reported dining at a restaurant than were those with negative SARS-CoV-2 test results,’ the CDC said. 

Dining in was banned in 42 states, and Nebraska and  Virginia put caps on the number of people restaurants could seat in March. 

Only a handful of states – including Oklahoma and South Dakota, which have become hotspots in recent weeks – allowed dining in to continue at the height of the pandemic. 

Now, most states have lifted their bans, partially or entirely, in fits and starts. 

After months of pick-up and outdoor dining only in New York City, Governor Andrew Cuomo announced this  week that restaurants could have diners in 25 percent of their seats starting September 30. 

Although office workers are also seated in a closed space, higher rates of infection in restaurants may be related to the obvious obvious impossibility of wearing masks while eating or drinking, as well as poor ventilation.

‘Reports of exposures in restaurants have been linked to air circulation. Direction, ventilation, and intensity of airflow might affect virus transmission, even if social distancing measures and mask use are implemented according to current guidance.’   

Those guidelines have varied considerably across country, including in the home states of the participants, which included California, Colorado, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee, Utah and Washington.  

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Covid-19 was the 24th most common cause of death in England last month

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covid 19 was the 24th most common cause of death in england last month

Coronavirus was only the 24th most common cause of death in England in August, official figures revealed today.

Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) shows Covid-19 accounted for a mere 1.4 per cent of all deaths last month – just 482 out of 34,000. 

Alzheimer’s was the leading cause of death, followed by heart disease and lung cancer. Flu and pneumonia was 8th. 

Covid-19 was to blame for a third of all deaths in April. And it was still the third most common way to die in June. But it has dropped massively down the table over the summer, despite Britain still living under restrictions designed to curb the spread of the virus.

Figures showed Covid-19 was the 19th most common cause of death in August in Wales, and accounted for 2.2 per cent of all deaths.

ONS data also shows fewer people died of any cause in August since 2000, when records began. A total of 746 deaths were registered for every 100,000 people last month, more than half of the 1,859 in April – the highest on record.

Experts say that because the coronavirus is the most severe in vulnerable people, deaths were ‘front loaded’ to the start of 2020 when the elderly and people with underlying conditions caught it. 

Covid-19 was not in the top ten most common causes of death in August in England (pictured)

Covid-19 was not in the top ten most common causes of death in August in England (pictured)

Covid-19 was not in the top ten most common causes of death in August in England (pictured)

Covid-19 was also missing from the top ten most common causes of death in August in Wales (pictured)

Covid-19 was also missing from the top ten most common causes of death in August in Wales (pictured)

Covid-19 was also missing from the top ten most common causes of death in August in Wales (pictured)

The rate of death per 100,000 this August (746) is the lowest on record

The rate of death per 100,000 this August (746) is the lowest on record

The rate of death per 100,000 this August (746) is the lowest on record

The data published today shows of the 34,750 deaths registered in August 2020 in England, 482 deaths involved the coronavirus, either suspected or confirmed. In Wales, 52 of the 2,379 deaths registered in August involved Covid-19.

The coronavirus did not even feature in the top ten leading causes of death in August in either country. But ONS do not publish a full table ranking the causes of deaths because it says the data is only preliminary and subject to change as more deaths are registered. 

The leading cause of death was dementia and Alzheimer’s disease in England, accounting for 10.9 per cent of all deaths (3,777), and ischaemic heart disease in Wales, 11 per cent of all deaths (261).

Alzheimer’s led to the deaths of around 80.6 people in England per 100,000 in August, compared with 7.2 for Covid-19. And flu deaths were 2.7 times higher than Covid-19 at around 19.6 deaths per 100,000.  

In Wales the difference is even more stark, with flu killing 35.3 people per 100,000 – three times higher than the 11 per 100,000 from Covid-19.

However, deaths from the most common causes have also decreased below what would be expected when compared to a five year average, and are lower than levels seen in March.

WHAT ARE THE LEADING CAUSES OF DEATH PER 100,000 PEOPLE IN ENGLAND AND WALES? 
Aug-20 Five-year average
England
Dementia and Alzheimer’s disease 80.6 96.6
Ischaemic heart diseases 77.8 88.4
Cancerous lung tumour 44.4 52.3
Cerebrovascular diseases, including stroke and aneurysms 40.9 50
Chronic lower respiratory diseases 32.6 41.8
Cancerous tumour of rectum/colon/anus 23.8 25.8
Symptoms signs and ill-defined conditions 20.7 20.5
Influenza and Pneumonia 19.6 32.3
Cancerous tumour stated or presumed to be primary of lymphoid, haematopoietic and related tissue 18.2 19.5
Cancerous tumour of the prostate 16.2 18.4
24th – Covid-19 7.2 N/A
Wales
Ischaemic heart diseases 91.5 102.7
Dementia and Alzheimer’s disease 88 95.2
Cancerous lung tumour 50.7 54.8
Cerebrovascular diseases, including stroke and aneurysms 44.9 56
Chronic lower respiratory diseases 40.9 43.1
Influenza and Pneumonia 35.3 44.3
Cancerous tumour of rectum/colon/anus 22.3 29.6
Cancerous tumour stated or presumed to be primary of lymphoid, haematopoietic and related tissue 19.2 21.1
Cancerous tumour of the prostate 18.9 17.8
Cirrhosis and other diseases of liver 16.5 15
19th – Covid-19 11 N/A
Data shows in April there were 623 Covid-19 deaths per 100,000 in England, now at 7.2. And in Wales, this figure has shot down from 495.1 to 11

Data shows in April there were 623 Covid-19 deaths per 100,000 in England, now at 7.2. And in Wales, this figure has shot down from 495.1 to 11

Data shows in April there were 623 Covid-19 deaths per 100,000 in England, now at 7.2. And in Wales, this figure has shot down from 495.1 to 11

There have been more deaths this year than what would have been expected. This is because of the pandemic

There have been more deaths this year than what would have been expected. This is because of the pandemic

There have been more deaths this year than what would have been expected. This is because of the pandemic

6 IN 10 COVID-19 DEATHS INVOLVED A DISABILITY  

Six in ten of Covid-19 victims had a disability, figures from the Office for National Statistics revealed today.

Disabled people made up 59 per cent of all deaths involving Covid-19 from March 2 to July 14 (27,534 of 46,314 deaths).

But only 16 per cent of the general population are disabled, according to the 2011 Census, meaning they were significantly impacted by the coronavirus than anyone else.

A disability was defined as a health problem which limits a person’s daily activities lasting or expected to last at least 12 months.

People answered the survey question with the answers of: Yes, limited a lot; Yes, limited a little; and No.

There were no disabilities described in the ONS report, therefore could range from a chronic pain condition, to arthritis in old age, to a physical handicap from birth.

According to the Government, the most commonly-reported impairments in Britain are those that affect mobility, lifting or carrying.

Covid-19 mortality rates between those with a disability compared to those without was 2.4 times higher for women and twice as high for men after adjusting for a range of factors – where people live, how densely population that area is and socio-demographics.

Of the total 46,314 deaths studied, 54.6 per cent were in males. And 90.5 per cent were in those over the age of 65 years.

Amongst the 19,405 deaths of women aged 65 years and over, 67.2 per cent (13,048) had a disability.

This was not as significant in men. Some 55.9 per cent of deaths in men over the age of 65 had a disability (12,612 of 22,525).

However, men looking at age-standardised mortality rates – used to allow comparisons between populations that may contain different proportions of people of different ages – men fared worse.

Men who were over 65 and severely limited by their disability had a mortality rate of 860.8 per 100,000 people compared to men in the same category without a disability at 351.87.

For women over 65 with a severe disability, the mortality rate was 589.63 compared with 187.95 in women without a disability.

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The mortality rate for Alzheimer’s in August was 80.6, compared to the five-year average of 96.6.

Deaths per 100,000 for and ischaemic heart disease in Wales were at 95.1 in August this year, compared to the five-year average of 102.7.

It could be speculated that because a large proportion of people who have been recorded as a Covid-19 death have had dementia and Alzheimer’s disease, those people’s deaths were brought forward due to the pandemic. 

Essentially, they sadly died earlier than expected due to catching the coronavirus but still may have died this year. 

Of the deaths that have involved the coronavirus during the pandemic, nine in ten victims had at least one pre-existing condition.

The most common are dementia and Alzheimer’s disease (a quarter), and heart disease (nine per cent).

The ONS said: ‘The coronavirus pandemic resulted in deaths registered in April and May 2020 rising well above what would be expected (based on the five-year average).

‘Covid-19 has had a larger impact on the most vulnerable people (such as those who already suffer from a medical condition), and those at older ages.

‘Some of these deaths would have likely occurred over the duration of the year but have occurred earlier because of Covid-19. These deaths happening earlier than expected could contribute to a period of deaths below the five-year average, as seen in August 2020.’

Overall there were 1,521 fewer deaths this August compared to last August, and 2,060 fewer than the five-year average.

But the month of August tends to have lower deaths than the rest of the year anyway, the data shows.

The rate of death per 100,000 this August (746) is the lowest on record but is followed by August 2019 (788). August 2015, August 2014, August 2013 and August 2009 are all in the top 10 least deadly months.

Mortality rates in Wales show a similar pattern. There were 835.8 deaths per 100,000 population in August 2020.

Generally, since 2001, the age-standardised mortality rates for people aged 0 to 74 years have been decreasing, the ONS points out.

The number of people dying of all causes has now been below average for several weeks in England and Wales, reaching a low in August. 

There were 739 deaths on August 31 this year compared to 1,189 in a typical year. But the former figure is subject to change as more death registrations come through.  

Covid-19 deaths have drastically declined in numbers since the peak of the pandemic, with the worst day on April 8 (1,220 deaths in England and 70 in Wales).

This has slowly fallen as the spread of the coronavirus has been curbed. There were five deaths due to Covid-19 occurring on 31 August in England and zero in Wales. This may go up slightly as more deaths are registered.

Data shows in April there were 623 Covid-19 deaths per 100,000 in England, now at 7.2. And in Wales, this figure has shot down from 495.1 to 11.

Covid-19 has been has been listed on death certificates as the underlying cause of death in 12.5 per cent of all deaths that occurred in England, and 9.8 per cent of all deaths in Wales since January.

Because of the pandemic, more people have died this year than would be expected.

Almost 365,890 people have died in England this year, 33,000 more than the five-year average, and 23,400 in Wales, 1,060 more than the five-year average.

Matt Hancock reveals Covid hospital admissions are doubling every EIGHT days as top expert warns thousands of infected patients a day could need NHS care in October 

ByStephen Matthews Health Editorand Joe Middleton For Mailonline

 Matt Hancock today warned the number of coronavirus patients being admitted to hospital is doubling every eight days as he revealed ministers need to ‘take action’ because the outbreak is accelerating.

The Health Secretary pleaded with the public to ‘come together to tackle this virus’ and admitted that a new national crackdown could be on the cards because it ‘isn’t just cases’ that are increasing. 

Government statistics show 194 newly-infected Covid-19 patients were admitted to hospitals in England on Tuesday, compared to just 84 eight days ago and just 38 on August 30. It means 154 patients are needing NHS care each day, on average — triple the figure of 52 on September 1.

More than 3,000 people each day were being admitted to NHS hospitals during the peak of the first wave in April. Analysis suggests, at the current trend, it would take little more than three weeks for daily admissions to top 2,000.

And a top infectious disease expert today warned that it is ‘plausible’ the doubling rate of every eight days could continue. Professor Paul Hunter, of University of East Anglia, told MailOnline the number of admissions could surpass the daily rate seen in March and April in just a month’s time. 

Cases have spiked over the same time frame, with another 3,395 infections recorded yesterday — a 33 per cent rise in a week. Deaths are also starting to creep up, with the average number of patients dying each day now standing at 14 — up from seven a fortnight ago. 

More aggressive measures, including a national ‘circuit breaker’, are on the cards to stop the growth of the outbreak. The move could come as soon as next week, with pubs, restaurants and hotels facing being shut to prevent ‘significant’ casualties.

It comes as hospitals have been warned they must clear beds and brace themselves for a rise in coronavirus patients in the next few weeks.  

MPs in London have been informed of plans to increase ‘step down’ beds in the capital, it was reported today. The beds will be made available to coronavirus patients who no longer need any hospital treatment, but can recover from the disease while isolating.    

Hospitals cancelled thousands of surgeries like hip operations and cancer treatment  to free up space for infected patients at the peak of the crisis, causing the NHS to have a record-high waiting list for routine treatment. The drive to free up beds in the first wave also saw coronavirus-infected patients discharged into care homes, where the virus was allowed to spread. 

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Analysis suggests, at the current trend, it would take little more than three weeks for daily admissions to top 2,000

Analysis suggests, at the current trend, it would take little more than three weeks for daily admissions to top 2,000

Analysis suggests, at the current trend, it would take little more than three weeks for daily admissions to top 2,000

The Health Secretary pleaded with the public to 'come together to tackle this virus' and admitted that a new national crackdown could be on the cards because it 'isn't just cases' that are increasing

The Health Secretary pleaded with the public to 'come together to tackle this virus' and admitted that a new national crackdown could be on the cards because it 'isn't just cases' that are increasing

The Health Secretary pleaded with the public to ‘come together to tackle this virus’ and admitted that a new national crackdown could be on the cards because it ‘isn’t just cases’ that are increasing

MATT HANCOCK ADMITS A NATIONAL CRACKDOWN IS ON THE CARDS 

Matt Hancock today admitted that a new national crackdown is on the cards as he warned infections are ‘accelerating across the country’ and more people will die.

The Health Secretary pleaded with the public to ‘come together to tackle this virus’ as ministers consider imposing draconian restrictions for a fortnight in a ‘circuit break’ to stop the spread.

The move could come as soon as next week, with pubs, restaurants and hotels facing being shut to prevent ‘significant’ casualties.

In a round of interviews this morning, Mr Hancock said a national lockdown was the ‘last line of defence’. But he warned that it was a ‘big moment for the country’ and the situation was ‘deadly serious’, with cases now doubling every eight days. Unless the ‘Rule of Six’ restrictions worked more would have to be done, he warned.

‘The virus is clearly accelerating across the country,’ Mr Hancock told Sky News. ‘We have got to take the necessary action to keep people safe. We will do what it takes to keep people safe.’

It comes as 10million people are told to follow new lockdown rules as Lancashire is placed under curfew alongside the North East.

The Government’s chief science and medical officers have warned that another serious outbreak of coronavirus could lead to a significant number of deaths by the end of next month.

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In an interview with BBC Breakfast this morning, Mr Hancock warned that it was ‘absolutely critical’ that people continued to follow the basic rules with regard to coronavirus.

He said: ‘We have seen an acceleration in the number of cases over the last couple of weeks and we’ve also sadly seen that the number of people hospitalised with coronavirus is doubling about every eight days, so we do need to take action.’

The government’s most-up-to-date data shows 194 Covid-19 patients in England were admitted to hospital on September 15 — at an average of 154 a day over the past week.

For comparison, the rolling seven-day average had dipped to as low as 45 on August 22, when just 25 hospital admissions were recorded across the country.

At the height of the pandemic at the start of April, the average number of daily admissions was 2,700. Britain’s lockdown and tough social distancing measures allowed the rate to plummet to below 1,000 by the start of May.

Department of Health chiefs say data is not updated every day by all four nations and the figures are not comparable. For instance, Wales include suspected Covid-19 patients while all the other nations include only confirmed cases.

Professor Hunter told MailOnline that the spike in admissions is ‘predictable’ and ‘expected’, given the spike in cases over the past few weeks.

He added: ‘It’s worrying that it’s going up but the big concern is how many hospital admissions we will end up seeing. 

‘I suspect it will carry on… but I suspect we won’t see it doubling quite as rapidly because, often, these things start off quite fast and then they tail off after a little while.

‘It doesn’t always tail off, but ultimately it does because if it carries on doubling [at that speed], then soon every single person on the planet will be on hospital. So it has to tail off eventually. 

‘The issue is when does it start tailing off? I have no way of knowing.’

Professor Hunter added that it was ‘plausible’ England’s hospital admissions could get up the levels seen in April but admitted he think it’s probably won’t happen.

He said: ‘The evidence is older people are still, sort of, social distancing themselves more than other groups, and they’re the group most likely to get hospitalised. There’s also a smaller pool to get infected and be hospitalised than we saw back in March and April.

‘But it may well continue, and it’s plausible that England could well in a month’s time be surpassing that figure. But I hope not.’ 

It comes as hospitals have been warned they must clear beds and brace themselves for a rise in coronavirus patients in the next few weeks. One MP who has seen the plans told the Telegraph: ‘I was told hospitals have reserved beds for people coming out of hospital who need somewhere to re-cover.

‘At the start of lockdown they were having to send people back to care homes or back to other facilities, with dire consequences, so they’ve booked places in respite care or empty care homes, so people will go out of hospital, but won’t return to their normal place of living.’ 

Another source said that councils have also been asked to find extra beds  

It comes amid more testing chaos yesterday as Baroness Dido Harding, head of NHS Test and Trace, revealed that demand for coronavirus tests is currently up to four times greater than the system’s capacity.

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TEST & TRACE ‘COULD BE OUTSOURCED TO AMAZON’ 

By Lizzie Deane for the Daily Mail

THE UK’S test and trace system could be outsourced to a delivery giant such as Amazon, it was reported last night.

Ministers are said to be planning to hand over the running of the testing service to a logistics firm as the system struggles to cope with increased demand for tests.

A invitation to bid for a contract covering the management of the entire ‘end-to-end’ supply chain will be issued next month, The Daily Telegraph reported.

A Government source said ‘experts in delivery services’ were needed. ‘At the moment, the management of NHS Test and Trace has been in-house but, as we go into winter, we need experts in this area to take it forward,’ they said.

Amazon, DHL and other major logistics firms are all reportedly likely to be competing for the huge contract which will be the linchpin of the Health Secretary’s promise to deliver 500,000 tests a day by the end of next month.

An information notice issued by the Department of Health calls for potential bidders to register their interest in the contract to co-ordinate the testing service’s supply change.

It says: ‘In order to significantly scale up the number of daily tests as well as making the operations more efficient, we are looking for an end-to-end management of all associated supply chain and logistics processes along the chain.’

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The government’s testing tzar also blamed the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) for seemingly getting its predictions wrong as she said testing capacity had been built based on the panel’s recommendations. 

Last night it emerged the country’s faltering testing system could be outsourced to Amazon, as reported by The Telegraph.

A source said: ‘At the moment the management of NHS Test and Trace has been in-house but as we go into winter we need experts in this area to take it forward.’    

The government is also expected to announce tighter restrictions on care home visits in areas with high numbers of coronavirus cases are expected to be announced by the Government in its winter action plan.

Care homes in areas subject to local lockdowns may be advised to temporarily restrict visits in all but end-of-life situations, it is understood.

For parts of the country where there is no local lockdown, but where community transmission is a cause for concern, an option officials are considering is advising that visits are restricted to one designated visitor per resident.

The Government will set out further details on Friday in its social care action plan to help fight the spread of coronavirus over winter.

As part of the plan, care homes will receive free protective equipment and providers must stop ‘all but essential’ movement of staff between homes, the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) said.

This will be supported by an additional £546 million announced on Thursday as part of the extended infection control fund.

A new dashboard will monitor care home infections and help local government and providers respond quickly.

And a chief nurse for adult social care will be appointed to represent social care nurses and provide ‘clinical leadership’.

Local authorities and the Care Quality Commission will be asked to take ‘strong action’ in instances where providers are not restricting staff movement adequately.

The DHSC said this could include restricting a service’s operation and issuing warning notices.

Health and Social Care Secretary Matt Hancock said: ‘We are entering a critical phase in our fight against coronavirus with winter on the horizon.

‘Our priority over the next six months is to make sure we protect those most vulnerable receiving care and our incredibly hard-working workforce by limiting the spread of the virus and preventing a second spike.

‘This winter plan gives providers the certainty they need when it comes to PPE and provides additional support to help care homes to limit the movement of staff, stop the spread of coronavirus and save lives.

‘We will be monitoring the implementation of this carefully and will be swift in our actions to protect residents and colleagues across the country.’

It comes as Age UK said some older people are ‘dying of sadness’ because they have been cut off from loved ones over a long period of time.

Charity director Caroline Abrahams said it is important the plan achieves an ‘appropriate balance’ between ensuring infection control and allowing residents to keep in contact with loved ones.

She said: ‘All in all what we have seen so far is promising, but we will await with interest to read what the plan says about visiting in care homes.

‘With Covid-19 cases on the rise and winter on the way it’s right that every activity that could potentially place residents at risk is considered very carefully, including visiting, but any sense of a ‘blanket ban’ would be highly inappropriate, however anxious we may all feel.

‘Risks, capabilities and opportunities of all kinds differ hugely across care homes and for the sake of older people this enormous variation must be taken fully into account.’

Liz Kendall, Labour’s shadow social care minister, welcomed the appointment of a chief nurse and increased funding.

She continued: ‘But the real test of this plan is whether the Government delivers on weekly testing of all care staff – first promised in July but still not delivered, with serious concerns about delays in getting results back.

‘Ensuring families can visit their loved ones is also critical, as without this care home residents can end up fading fast.’ 

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Pine-Sol gets EPA’s seal of approval for killing coronavirus on surfaces

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pine sol gets epas seal of approval for killing coronavirus on surfaces

Pine-Sol has been approved by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as an effective cleaner that can kill the novel coronavirus.

This make the common disinfectant, which is owned by The Clorox Company, one of the nearly 500 products approved by the agency to neutralized the virus.  

In a press release, the company stated Pine-Sol was effective against the virus with a ’10-minute contact time on hard non-porous surfaces.’ 

Earlier this year, President Donald Trump speculated about injecting a disinfectant into the human body as a defense against COVID-19.

But public health experts warn these products are not meant to be ingested in any way and that doing so can have serious consequences.

Pine-Sol Original Multi-Surface Cleaner was found effective against the virus on 'hard non-porous surfaces' after letting it stand for 10 minutes by a third-party laboratory, The Clorox Company said.

Pine-Sol Original Multi-Surface Cleaner was found effective against the virus on 'hard non-porous surfaces' after letting it stand for 10 minutes by a third-party laboratory, The Clorox Company said.

Pine-Sol Original Multi-Surface Cleaner was found effective against the virus on ‘hard non-porous surfaces’ after letting it stand for 10 minutes by a third-party laboratory, The Clorox Company said.

Pine-Sol, which is found on the EPA’s website under the name ‘Tuck 3,’ was added to the agency’s list of ‘Disinfectants for Use Against SARS-CoV-2’ on September 3. 

According to Good Housekeeping, the cleaner is listed under the code 5813-101 on the EPA’s website. 

‘With a long-standing history of being a powerful cleaner and disinfectant…Pine-Sol Original Multi-Surface Cleaner now offers the clean families have trusted through generations with the protection they need right now against the spread of SARS-Cov-2, the virus that causes COVID-19,’ Chris Hyder, Vice President and General Manager of the Cleaning division, at The Clorox Company, said in a statement.

‘We hope this new Pine-Sol kill claim will increase access to disinfectants that can help prevent the spread of COVID-19.’ 

To disinfect surfaces against the coronavirus, The Clorox Company recommend applying Pine-Sol with a clean sponge or a cloth.

Next, wet the surface and let stand for 10 minutes before rinsing.

According to the company, most of the other disinfectants recommended by the EPA have not been specifically tested against the virus that causes COVID-19.

Several cleaning products, such as Clorox and Lysol, have experienced shortages with some reporting it will be difficult to find these products in either wipe or spray form until 2021.

However, The Clorox Company says Pine-Sol disinfectant is not experiencing such shortages and  is ‘readily available’ both in stores and online.

The EPA says that, when using any of the products on its list, to follow label instructions for ‘safe, effective use.’

This includes instructions for contact time, or the amount of time the surface should be visibly wet, before being rinsed.      

Pine-Sol was founded by chemist Harry Cole in Jackson, Mississippi, with the original formulation being pine oil-based, which is a natural disinfectant.

Clorox acquired the Pine-Sol brand from American Cyanamid’s Shulton Group in 1990, but the products no longer contain pine oil to reduce costs

The company is perhaps most famous for having comedienne Diane Amos serve as the spokesperson for advertising campaigns since 1993 with her famous catchphrase: ‘That’s the power of Pine-Sol, baby.’

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