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New coronavirus curbs ‘would cost £250m A DAY’: Economy could shrink by 5%, experts warn

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new coronavirus curbs would cost 250m a day economy could shrink by 5 experts warn

Partial lockdowns which discourage eating out and a return by workers to the office could shrink the economy by up to 5 per cent, a think-tank warned yesterday.

The Centre for Economics and Business Research calculated the bill for major restrictions covering sectors such as hospitality at up to £250million a day.

This would mean that national output would shrink by between 3 per cent and 5 per cent over the last three months of 2020 compared to between July and September. 

The £250million bill would be a tenth of the impact of full lockdown at its peak in April.

The Centre for Economics and Business Research warned partial lockdowns discouraging eating out (above, The Old Stables Restaurant in Liverpool) could shrink economy by up to 5%

The Centre for Economics and Business Research warned partial lockdowns discouraging eating out (above, The Old Stables Restaurant in Liverpool) could shrink economy by up to 5%

The Centre for Economics and Business Research warned that the UK could suffer if partial lockdowns lead to the public losing faith in the Government's handling of the Covid crisis

The Centre for Economics and Business Research warned that the UK could suffer if partial lockdowns lead to the public losing faith in the Government’s handling of the Covid crisis

But the CEBR has cautioned that the UK could suffer even more if partial lockdowns cause the public to lose faith in the Government’s handling of the pandemic.

Douglas McWilliams, of the CEBR, said: ‘The bigger cost is the unmeasurable cost – many people feel that progress [so far] going into reverse would knock the stuffing out of consumer and business confidence. 

‘Whereas the first lockdown was bearable on the assumption that it was temporary, a second lockdown will make many people lose confidence in a recovery in the foreseeable future.’

He added that the end of the furlough scheme – which sees the Government pay part of workers’ salaries – on October 31 could also prompt swathes of job losses as ‘tens of thousands of businesses are hanging on by a thread and likely to run out of cash’.

He insisted: ‘Many people are being kept on not because of their current productivity but so that they will be available when business picks up.

‘If people start to lose hope in the economy recovering in the foreseeable future, the knock-on effect could well be a multiple of anything that could emerge from an economics calculation.’ 

Yesterday, it was reported 1,000 of leisure group Butlin's (above, company safety video) 6,000 staff were at risk of losing their jobs, but bosses stressed a decision has not yet been made

Yesterday, it was reported 1,000 of leisure group Butlin’s (above, company safety video) 6,000 staff were at risk of losing their jobs, but bosses stressed a decision has not yet been made

It comes amid a growing backlash at suggestions the Government will impose a 10pm curfew on the hospitality sector to curb the rising Covid-19 infection rate.

… while UK ‘takes £11bn hit’ from slump in US air travel 

The lack of a quarantine-free travel corridor to the US will cost the UK economy £11billion this year, a report reveals today.

Aviation bosses say the failure to reopen trans-Atlantic routes is having a devastating impact, with the hit to UK PLC at £32million a day.

It is also set to cost £45.8billion in lost trade with the US, according to the research by Airlines UK, British Airways owner IAG and aviation services firm Collinson.

Almost 20 per cent of British exports go to the US and in 2018 these were worth £121billion. There are normally four million US visitors every year. They spent a total of £3.8billion during 2019 but that is expected to fall by £3.1billion by the end of the year, the report said.

London to New York is the world’s most profitable air link and a vital route for BA and Virgin Atlantic.

But the US is on the Government’s ‘red’ list of countries from which arrivals must self-isolate for 14 days.

Heathrow boss John Holland-Kaye said: ‘This is a stark warning that action is needed immediately to safely open up connections with our key trading partners in the US.’

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Stephen Sullivan, of Ziggy’s bar in South Shields, Tyne and Wear, where a new local lockdown has been introduced, said imposing a 10pm curfew has already had a dramatic impact on his customers, who normally arrive between 10pm and 2am.

He told BBC Radio 4’s The World This Weekend the current situation was ‘incredibly difficult’, adding: ‘We are somewhere between 60 and 70 per cent down on previous weekends. One of my friends had 5 per cent of their normal custom and they’ve taken the decision already to close and remain closed until such time we are back to normal.’

Asked about what would happen if there was a national lockdown, he said: ‘Without financial help, it would be impossible. It would be the end of the road for me.’ 

There are growing fears of a jobs bloodbath when the furlough scheme ends.

Yesterday, it was reported 1,000 of leisure group Butlin’s 6,000 staff were at risk of losing their jobs, but bosses stressed a decision has not yet been made. 

Meanwhile, figures collected by think-tank Centre for Cities showed that local lockdowns put the brake on recoveries.

Economists told The Sunday Telegraph that there was now a ‘significant risk’ of a W-shaped recovery – or double-dip recession.

It came after analysis indicated economic activity in certain cities was dampened by new restrictions to tackle outbreaks.

In some areas, the reimposing of restrictions has stalled or even reversed many recoveries as more companies roll back reopenings.

In Manchester, footfall of shoppers has stalled at half of pre-virus levels in the last month.

The coronavirus restrictions in Leicester caused spending to drop back down to a fifth of normal levels after a brief recovery in the weeks following the end of national lockdown. 

In Aberdeen, the bounce-back in footfall faltered after new measures were introduced. The figures there fell from 75 per cent of normal levels to below 50 per cent. 

By Eleanor Hayward Health Reporter for the Daily Mail

Experts say the current daily coronavirus death toll is not grounds for a new national lockdown.

The number of deaths from the virus each day remains very far below the peak in April – and also much lower than fatalities from other causes.

Over the last seven days, there have been an average of 21 coronavirus deaths per day.

The current daily coronavirus death toll is on a par with suicide ¿ which claims an average of 18 lives a day, figures from Cancer Research UK and the Office for National Statistics show

The current daily coronavirus death toll is on a par with suicide – which claims an average of 18 lives a day, figures from Cancer Research UK and the Office for National Statistics show

This compares to figures above 1,000 on certain days in April when the infection was at its peak in Britain.

And official figures show that Covid-19 is responsible for a tiny fraction of the daily deaths in Britain.

Last year, there were approximately an average of 450 deaths a day from cancer, 214 from dementia and 174 from heart disease.

These figures, from Cancer Research UK and the Office for National Statistics (ONS), would be broadly similar at present.

The current daily coronavirus death toll is more on a par with suicide – which claims an average of 18 lives a day, ONS data shows.

And despite new restrictions being imposed by ministers in various parts of Britain, the country’s official coronavirus ‘alert level’ has not changed since June.

On June 19, the level was downgraded from four to three – on a five-level scale – so restrictions could be ‘gradually relaxed’.

Yesterday, Health Secretary Matt Hancock confirmed the country was still at level 3 –which means transmission of Covid-19 was not deemed ‘high or rising exponentially’.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock confirmed the country was still at level 3 but added new restrictions are being brought in because the 'number of cases is shooting up'

Health Secretary Matt Hancock confirmed the country was still at level 3 but added new restrictions are being brought in because the ‘number of cases is shooting up’

But he added: ‘We’re bringing in new restrictions because the number of cases is shooting up.’ 

And a leading health expert said it was ‘too early’ for a second lockdown.

Professor Carl Heneghan, director of Oxford University’s centre for evidence-based medicine, said the country ‘can’t afford to go now with harsh measures’.

He told Sky News that Covid-19 was operating in a seasonal way similar to other respiratory infections, saying: ‘If we go now it’s too early. As it gets colder, as we’re inside more, there will be more coughs and colds.

‘If you’re looking at a break and when we need it, we need it in the mid-winter when we might run into problems.

‘There’s no evidence right now of what’s called a second wave.’

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Care homes are demanding mandatory testing of inspectors to prevent putting elderly ‘lives at risk’

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care homes are demanding mandatory testing of inspectors to prevent putting elderly lives at risk

Care homes are demanding mandatory testing of inspectors to prevent putting elderly ‘lives at risk’ after more than 100 reported coronavirus symptoms. 

The Care Quality Commission (CQC) had suspended inspections for five months in an attempt to slow the spread of coronavirus. 

But last month the watchdog took the decision, sanctioned by the Department of Health, to redeploy inspectors.

The CQC, which employs around 1,300 inspectors, is set to launch 500 inspections over the next six weeks – but testing for those visiting care homes is not currently compulsory.

Care provides have fiercely criticised the move after it was estimated that 16,000 care home residents died with Covid-19 during the first wave of coronavirus. 

Care homes are demanding mandatory testing of inspectors to prevent putting elderly 'lives at risk' after more than 100 reported coronavirus symptoms (stock image)

Care homes are demanding mandatory testing of inspectors to prevent putting elderly ‘lives at risk’ after more than 100 reported coronavirus symptoms (stock image)

Data obtained under the Freedom of Information Act by The Sunday Telegraph revealed that more than 100 CQC inspectors reported Covid-19 symptoms or were forced to self-isolate.

It showed that during the period from March to October 20, 11 CQC staff tested positive for coronavirus which included six who were inspectors. 

A further 225 members of CQC staff, 103 of whom were inspectors, self-isolated as a precaution.

The report also showed that the watchdog had received one complaint in relation to its inspectors not wearing appropriate personal protective equipment during an inspection.

Care home managers have since called on the organisation to introduce mandatory testing for all inspectors as they insist that otherwise ‘lives will be put at risk’. 

The report also showed that the watchdog had received one complaint in relation to its inspectors not wearing appropriate personal protective equipment during an inspection (stock image)

The report also showed that the watchdog had received one complaint in relation to its inspectors not wearing appropriate personal protective equipment during an inspection (stock image)

Labour MP Barbara Keeley has since said that the data proved why it was now vital that inspectors were regularly tested in order to protect elderly lives.

She told The Independent: ‘On the basis of these numbers, inspectors may be potentially taking infections into care homes. Given the risk Covid-19 poses in care homes, this cannot be allowed to happen.

‘It’s just not acceptable that the inspectors are not being tested regularly… It is clear from these numbers that the only way for CQC inspections to resume in a safe manner is for all inspectors to have access to regular Covid-19 testing, even if they are asymptomatic.’

MailOnline has contacted the Care Quality Commission for comment. 

This post first appeared on dailymail.co.uk

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Diary of political aide PETER CARDWELL reveals whats goes on in Westminster

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diary of political aide peter cardwell reveals whats goes on in westminster

Six decades ago, we didn’t exist. But we spads have become increasingly influential in Whitehall, playing a strange role for Ministers, somewhere between friend, gatekeeper, adviser and general dogsbody armed with a Snickers bar (in case of a meltdown needing a sugar hit).

As Housing Secretary James Brokenshire’s media spad, I had to advise him on the regular rounds of interviews – which could cover anything from NHS care beds to Love Island evictions – as well as reminding him to have a pee beforehand. And, of course, to be tuned into all the Westminster gossip.

The Coffey grinder

A colleague who got invited to the Brit Awards contacted me the morning after about the antics of the Work and Pensions Secretary: ‘The image that will be burned into the pinholes of my eyes – perhaps for ever – is that of Therese Coffey attempting to twerk to Stormzy.’ As a result, poor Therese has been nicknamed the ‘Twerk and Pensions Secretary’.

Theresa’s one unhappy camper

At one reception at No 10, a Tory MP brought the eccentric actress Su Pollard as his plus-one. The then PM, Theresa May, endured Pollard shouting, ‘Hi-de-hi, Theresa!’ at her. I’m sure, in that moment, Mrs May felt the decades at the grindstone of political life were all worth it.

At one reception at No 10, a Tory MP brought the eccentric actress Su Pollard as his plus-one. The then PM, Theresa May, endured Pollard shouting, ‘Hi-de-hi, Theresa!’ at her. I’m sure, in that moment, Mrs May felt the decades at the grindstone of political life were all worth it

At one reception at No 10, a Tory MP brought the eccentric actress Su Pollard as his plus-one. The then PM, Theresa May, endured Pollard shouting, ‘Hi-de-hi, Theresa!’ at her. I’m sure, in that moment, Mrs May felt the decades at the grindstone of political life were all worth it

The snarking of the Hunt

I asked Labour’s Tristram Hunt what he saw as his role as a constituency MP. He said: ‘It is to try to convince people that Stoke isn’t a s***hole.’ At least he was honest.

Take that, Barlow!

At the heart of No 10 is ‘Switch’ –- the switchboard – renowned for its calm, assured operators who connect Prime Ministers to anyone in the world. Switch has the number of almost anyone the PM could possibly want to contact. Very occasionally, though, it makes mistakes. Once, a No 10 official asked to be put through to the then Housing Minister Gavin Barwell, but the operator misheard. Take That frontman Gary Barlow was slightly baffled to receive a call about housing policy.

A smarter class of reader

James Brokenshire’s wife Cathy rang me about an interview James was about to do with the Daily Mail. Was it OK to wear jeans for the photo? No, I said quickly, it is better to go slightly smarter as the Mail’s readership would expect something a little dressier.

My text that cost £387m

One Friday morning, I was working at home in my jogging bottoms, happily tapping away at my laptop and two phones. Incidentally, two groups of people always work on two phones: spads and drug-dealers.

I was called by a journalist on The Times and asked about a rumour that housing giant Persimmon was about to post profits of £1 billion. After some digging, I texted a comment saying the company had not always acted entirely properly in regard to the Government’s Help To Buy scheme for first-time buyers.

This led to a story saying ‘Britain’s most profitable housebuilder faces being stripped of its right to sell Help To Buy homes after allegations of poor standards.’

On Monday morning, when the financial markets opened – and largely the result of my text – Persimmon’s worth fell by £387 million in just one day.

Ironing out the wrinkles

One Minister who sat around the Cabinet table told her diary secretary to block out an afternoon once a month so she could go to her doctor in Harley Street for Botox. ‘The problem,’ the spad told me, ‘is when she grins heavily, you can see the filler accumulate above her temples.’

Rebel without a pause

Some Downing Street spads had a sweepstake on how long Greg Clark, then Business Secretary, would speak continuously in Cabinet meetings. His record? Twenty-six minutes without a pause. In a 90-minute meeting.

Boris owes me a big debt

My first encounter with Boris Johnson was when I was on work experience at The Spectator and he was editor. He sent me to buy him a coffee, saying: ‘And get one for yourself, too.’

My first encounter with Boris Johnson was when I was on work experience at The Spectator and he was editor. He sent me to buy him a coffee, saying: ‘And get one for yourself, too’. The coins he gave me didn’t even cover the full cost of his latte. Boris still owes me £2.35, 15 years on

My first encounter with Boris Johnson was when I was on work experience at The Spectator and he was editor. He sent me to buy him a coffee, saying: ‘And get one for yourself, too’. The coins he gave me didn’t even cover the full cost of his latte. Boris still owes me £2.35, 15 years on

The coins he gave me didn’t even cover the full cost of his latte. Boris still owes me £2.35, 15 years on.

The rainbow warrior

While in the Northern Ireland Office, I worked with Junior Minister Kris Hopkins on advancing the cause of same-sex civil marriage there, against resistance from the Democratic Unionist Party. During one meeting, the blunt Yorkshireman said: ‘It’s probably about bloody time I got on my big rainbow underpants and told the DUP what’s what on equal marriage.’ When Kris left the department, I bought him such a pair on eBay for £2.99. I don’t know if he ever wore them.

The last Post-It

It is traditional for Treasury Ministers to leave a light-hearted Post-It note for their successors.

Liam Byrne’s message after the 2008 banking crash and subsequent recession infamously read: ‘Dear Chief Secretary, I am afraid there is no money. Kind regards and good luck.’

Previously, civil servants had spotted a series of other notes that Byrne (nicknamed ‘Baldemort’ in tribute to the Harry Potter villain) had left around his desk to motivate himself.

They included ‘Get Army fit’, ‘Have my own library (like Reagan)’ and ‘Buy ski chalet in France’.

Red Ed’s jibes are no joke

I was reliably informed two jokes were cut out of Ed Miliband’s first conference speech as Labour leader about the then Tory Communities Secretary Eric Pickles being overweight. The first – ‘the party never worries about losing Eric Pickles, because wherever he goes he always leaves a trail of crumbs’ – you could probably just about get away with. But ‘Eric Pickles – the only Cabinet Minister visible from space’ would have been a jibe too far.

Shocking behaviour

Protection officers get to know Ministers well, but personal relationships such as the one in the BBC1 drama Bodyguard are strictly prohibited. Saying that, one spad sent a cheeky Valentine’s Day card to a protection officer who had worked with their principal, including the line: ‘No need to fire your Taser to make me go weak at the knees.’

A whiff of offence

During the Election campaign of 2017, one volunteer worker had a particularly strong reaction around Theresa May’s chief of staff Fiona Hill – her perfume brought her out in hives, so she had to retreat every time Fiona came near. The volunteer never felt that she could explain to Fiona the reason she kept stepping away.

Oven-ready scandal

The eight-day media maelstrom that we called ‘Ovengate’ began when a small Sunday Times news item remarked that James and Cathy own two double ovens. By Tuesday, memes were flying thick and fast on Twitter, and James decided to lean into the ludicrous, and increasingly funny, reaction. He tweeted a picture of himself with a Victoria sponge cake with the line: ‘Amazing what you can rustle up! Maybe some more hot potatoes next! #TwoOvens.’

A very boor show

The key thing, in victory and defeat, is to be graceful and magnanimous with your opponents. Labour’s Emily Thornberry was neither. Despite the exit poll in 2017 which suggested the Tory Government was going to be re-elected, she strutted on to the set at Sky News, churlishly sneering at us. Cathy Brokenshire can’t stand Thornberry and, believe me, when you’ve lost Cathy you’re doing really badly.

Something’s brewing

Whenever Theresa May was on a factory visit, it was our job to check there was a supply of the correct tea bags (Earl Grey, since you ask).

Whenever Theresa May was on a factory visit, it was our job to check there was a supply of the correct tea bags (Earl Grey, since you ask)

 Whenever Theresa May was on a factory visit, it was our job to check there was a supply of the correct tea bags (Earl Grey, since you ask)

Conference pairs

At one Liberal Democrat party conference, I remember the drunken lover of a senior Lib Dem MP pitching up wearing just a vest and shorts, looking like some sort of relic from a Culture Club gig. I also remember a female friend, who would have been about 25 at the time, telling me about the difficult experience of extracting herself from a conversation with a famous broadcaster at least 40 years her senior whose intentions were not to discuss the contents of Nick Clegg’s speech.

Back to school, Minister

Suspecting that while being interviewed by sixth-formers, newly appointed Northern Ireland Secretary Karen Bradley might be tested on some rudimentary general knowledge, I told her the FAT LAD acronym I’d learned in primary school to remember the six counties of Northern Ireland – Fermanagh, Armagh, Tyrone, Londonderry, Antrim, Down.

As you leak it

At a mandatory 7.55am gathering of all spads in Downing Street – one of the first of the Johnson administration – Dominic Cummings told us in no uncertain terms: ‘If you leak, you will be marched from your desk by the head of security at your department, your pass will be taken off you and you will be sacked. You have no rights.’ Of course, these sentiments were immediately leaked and appeared in The Times the very next day...

At a mandatory 7.55am gathering of all spads in Downing Street – one of the first of the Johnson administration – Dominic Cummings told us in no uncertain terms: ‘If you leak, you will be marched from your desk by the head of security at your department, your pass will be taken off you and you will be sacked. You have no rights.’ Of course, these sentiments were immediately leaked and appeared in The Times the very next day…

At a mandatory 7.55am gathering of all spads in Downing Street – one of the first of the Johnson administration – Dominic Cummings told us in no uncertain terms: ‘If you leak, you will be marched from your desk by the head of security at your department, your pass will be taken off you and you will be sacked. You have no rights.’

Of course, these sentiments were immediately leaked and appeared in The Times the very next day…

© Peter Cardwell, 2020

lThe Secret Life Of Special Advisers, by Peter Cardwell, is published by Biteback on Tuesday at £20. To order a copy for £17.60, including free UK delivery, go to mailshop.co.uk/books or call 020 3308 9193 before October 31.

This post first appeared on dailymail.co.uk

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Lily James’s character describes Dominic West’s character in upcoming movie

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lily jamess character describes dominic wests character in upcoming movie

Few who saw the photographs of them canoodling in Rome can doubt that Lily James looked impressed by Dominic West’s masculine charms.

Now the 31-year-old has spoken in glowing terms about the appeal of the character he plays in their new film.

The pair co-star in the BBC‘s upcoming adaptation of Nancy Mitford’s The Pursuit Of Love, which traces the romantic adventures of the free-spirited Linda Radlett between the two world wars. 

For his part, West appears as the bullying and eccentric Uncle Matthew.

Actress Lily James, 31 has spoken in glowing terms about the appeal of the character Dominic West plays in their new film

Actress Lily James, 31 has spoken in glowing terms about the appeal of the character Dominic West plays in their new film

In an interview with The Guardian published yesterday, but conducted before the dalliance in Rome, Ms James said she had known her co-star for ‘a really long time’ since they appeared together in a Shakespeare play a decade ago.

Speaking of his role in their latest venture, she added: ‘He’s a brilliant Uncle Matthew, another mad sort of character. 

I have a great line in it where I say, ‘Matthew is frightening and I disapprove of him, but I feel he sets the bar for English manhood.’ What a great line.’

When the photographs of their holiday antics first emerged, West staged an awkward photoshoot at his Wiltshire mansion with his wife, the Anglo-Irish aristocrat Catherine FitzGerald.

Lily James and Dominic West, 51, pictured together on a scooter in Rome earlier this month

Lily James and Dominic West, 51, pictured together on a scooter in Rome earlier this month 

The Wire actor, 51, later posted a handwritten note at the boundary of their property for photographers. It read: ‘Our marriage is strong and we’re very much still together. Thank you.’

Ms James, who last year split from former Doctor Who star Matt Smith, has since kept a low profile at her North London home.

In the interview, she says she spent the summer reading poetry and watching films.

Asked if she spent the time alone, she replied: ‘No comment.’

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